Of the more than 18,000 subsidized housing units in Maine, nearly 5,000 could lose federal funding this decade. Funding for the remainder is at risk during the next 30 years. This a frightening prospect not only for those living in the units now, but for the more than 2,300 families currently on waiting lists for the housing.

Most of the threatened subsidized units were built in the 1970s and early 1980s through a variety of programs that created public-private partnerships. To make the programs desirable to the private sector, many of the programs offered limited agreements that free the housing of government control, usually after 20 years. Some agreements won’t conclude until as late as 2020, which has made the problem seem distant, but to wait until Maine families have lost their homes before acting on the housing shortage until is an enormous mistake.

The Maine State Housing Authority last year devised an interim strategy to maintain as many of the units as possible. The MSHA recommendations include urging the federal government to create a national housing preservation program; passing state legislation to protect tenants and ensure orderly negotiations for purchase of subsidized housing; creating a state preservation fund of $10 million through a bond issue; allocating $1.2 million in state funds for short-term rental assistance; and promoting private investment in subsidized housing through tax incentives.

The loss of affordable housing is not only a poor person’s problem. For municipalities, which may have to support otherwise homeless families through General Assistance funds, an end to subsidized housing could mean increased property taxes and reduced services. For the state, maintaining housing at the 1990 level would cost more than $1 billion in the near future.

Nearly 25 percent of Maine renters receive federal rent assistance. Tenants pay 30 percent of their incomes, which averages $6,000 per year and makes their average rent $150 per month. A two-bedroom apartment without government support might cost $400 per month, or 80 percent of a tenant’s income, leaving the tenant with few options but the street.

“There is a crisis on the horizon of huge proportion,” according to Richard Davies, director of governmental and community relations for MSHA. “In the early ’80s, Reagan allocated out of social services — housing took the biggest hit.”

The outlook for affordable housing in Maine, Davies said, is “dismal,” but that may be optimistic. Thousands of Maine families could lose their homes in the next few years unless major policy changes occur at both the federal and state levels. The only thing certain to occur by continuing to simply wait for the crisis is increased difficulties for Maine’s poor and, eventually, the entire state.