FORT FAIRFIELD — Fall harvesting states that grow most of the country’s potatoes may produce a crop of 345 million hundredweight, a “break-even” supply that might coincide with demand, but may represent too many potatoes for break even prices.

“One thing that worries some people is that, as growers, we need to produce, I think, about 10 million hundredweight, or maybe it’s 5 million hundredweight, less than break-even supplies in order to achieve break-even prices. That’s the way it sometimes seemed during those low price years in the mid-1980s,” 350 people attending the Maine Potato Blossom Festival were told Friday night.

The speaker was Harry Fraser, a grower from Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, and editor of Fraser’s Potato Newsletter. He addressed the annual industry dinner at Richard Shaw’s potato house.

“The weather is the crucial item now in determining 1990 potato supplies,” Fraser said.

The nation’s potato growers reaped two bountiful price years beginning in 1988 when the crop was short. The season just concluded was one of the best grower-earning years ever, with fall states’ production put at 325 million hundredweight.

“The (1989 crop) supply fell short of total demand,” said Fraser. “So the point could be made that a crop of 345 million hundredweight might represent the (supply and demand) break-even point this year.”

If average yields are obtained, say 300 hundredweight per-acre, for the fall states compared with 229 hundredweight last year, then total production this fall would be 345 million hundredweight, Fraser calculated.

“As a journalist and a viewer of the potato scene,” he continued, “I was disappointed with that six percent (U.S. fall acreage) increase” forecast by the government on July 12. “I’d been hoping that it might be only two percent, hoping that the talk of extra acres in the west had been overblown. It was a big overall increase, but not wholly unexpected.”

Canada’s potato acreage is up three percent.

Fall growing states across the nation were expected to grow some 64,000 more potato acres than a year ago.

“Idaho’s the state that has put everyone else in jeopardy with a 40,000-acre (11 percent) increase,” Fraser reminded listeners. Practically all the (fall states) increase occurred in the western potato states where acreage was up 9 percent. Idaho was the leader with a total of 395,000 acres, more than is grown in Canada.

“The situation in the east was interesting, instructive and commendable with acreage practically the same as last year, at 133,100.”

On an optimistic note, Fraser added, “With inventory supplies of french fries getting down to a low ebb now, in July, processing probably will use close to 10 million hundredweight more potatoes this coming season than processing across America did during the past season. The same type of thing is happening in Canada.