Soviet foreign minister turns the tide

Do the right thing. Better yet, say the right thing.

Comments from Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze last Friday turned the tide on Wall Street. He saved the day and reversed a market that was heading the wrong way..

What he said was that Iraq would pull out of Kuwait “very soon.” He didn’t say they would talk about it or sleep on it. No, it was a flat statement they would leave “very soon.” Sort of like he knew the man in charge.

Since his country armed Iraq in the first place, and since there aren’t too many troops arrogantly massed on the Soviet border, the market grabbed the Shevardnadze statement and ran with it.

Up until this point, which would have been around mid-day on Friday, the stock market was getting its licks from all sides. Not only was the Dow down more than 123 points, but some of the big name favorites were in a free fall. Disney, which traded as low as 102 1/4, snapped back to close at 109 1/2, still down 6 1/2 for the week. Merck had an 82 1/4 low and an 85 1/2 close, down 2 3/4 for the week. Call it a crashette.

All these rebounds came within moments of the Soviet statement, and from its low point of being 123 points down, the Dow recovered to close 54.95 down on Friday.

Considering the unknowns of the Iraqi situation, the reports they were massing troops on the Saudi border, and the economic news at home that showed the U.S. economy may suddenly be weakening, it is good that the Dow lost only 88.86 points for the week to 2809.65.

In addition, transports plunged 95.62 to 1039.05 over the probable UAL buyout blowup.

Utilities, however, were another matter. That average rose 6.35 to 209.70 in response to a general drop in interest rates. That was partly due to the flight to quality typical of a market plunge when investors stampede into Treasuries — utilites often benefit because they are considered bond substitutes — and to the sudden rise in the July jobless rate, which is 5.5 percent compared with June’s 5.2 percent. It’s the highest number in two years and might get worse since help wanted advertising is at its lowest level in five years.

Then toss in some more economic negatives. Consumer spending is rising twice as fast as income, and June factory orders fell 1.5 percent.

Surely such a tumble in stocks last week was not a surprise to those who have been watching the market. The Dow average itself was on a bee line toward 3000, but it hid a broader weakness. The average NYSE stock is said to be off 20 percent from its August 1987 pre-crash high. This is painfully obvious to those who do not own the Dow stocks.

The divergence between a brilliant Dow and a boring broader market has often been a warning for the market. It’s the first half of waiting for the other shoe to drop syndrome. Maybe last week shook out some excesses; maybe it didn’t. Surely the panic selling of early Friday flashed an impressive indicator.

The short term has to be a result of the Iraq situation. If Iraq does pack its bags and head home — admittedly unlikely — my guess is the market would be jubilant. If Iraq leans toward Saudi Arabia — also considered unlikely — I’d get a bottle of that migraine medicine.

Paul Jarvis is a stockbroker in Bangor with A.G. Edwards