Cohen, Andrews, Snowe ahead in poll

U.S. Sen. William S. Cohen and U.S. Rep. Olympia J. Snowe seem to have ridden out the tide of anti-incumbency sentiment sweeping other states, leaving both Republicans on track for comfortable re-election victories in Tuesday’s elections, while Democratic newcomer Tom Andrews holds the lead in Maine’s 1st Congressional District.

Those are the findings of the final statewide election survey by the Bangor Daily News and Capitol News Service.

But opposition candidates cautioned that the volatility of the electorate this fall makes it impossible to rule out an upset in any of the state’s three congressional races.

Cohen led Democratic challenger Neil Rolde, 57.2 to 31.8 percent, with 10.9 percent undecided in the NEWS/CNS survey of 650 “very likely” Maine voters conducted Oct. 28-30. The poll is believed to be accurate to within plus or minus 3 percent.

Snowe led Democratic challenger Pat McGowan, 52.6 percent to 35.1 percent, with 12.3 percent undecided. A total of 308 2nd Congressional District voters were interviewed, producing a sample believed to be accurate to within plus or minus 5 percent.

Andrews led former Republican Rep. David F. Emery, 43.8 to 38.2 percent, with 18 percent undecided. A total of 361 1st District voters were interviewed. The survey sample is believed to be accurate to within plus or minus 5 percent.

Beryl Valverde, Rolde’s campaign spokesman, said that the poll “shows me that we still are moving up and Cohen still is moving down. This race is definitely winable.”

Robert Tyrer, Cohen’s campaign manager, disagreed.

“In a year when most incumbents are in trouble, our lead shows the true strength of the bond between Bill Cohen and the people of Maine. … To maintain a 25.4 percent lead against the most expensive political campaign in Maine history is a substantial accomplishment,” Tyrer said.

The NEWS/CNS survey indicated that Cohen is easily beating Rolde among Republicans (81.5 to 10.9 percent) and independent voters (53.9 to 33.9 percent), while trailing the challenger only 39.7 to 46.6 percent among Democratic voters.

That softness among Democrats, Valverde conceded, “was very disappointing.”

“Bill Cohen is not a Democrat. He may vote like a Democrat during election years (but) he does not vote like a Democrat in other years,” she said, adding, “Cohen has been a good senator in a general sense, but his area of expertise (military and intelligence issues) is not going to excite people anymore unless you are pretty right wing, or a traditional conservative.”

Tyrer said, “Mr. Rolde began actively campaigning in February of 1989. He is heading toward spending $2 million … and he has not quite achieved a majority in his own party. That has to be quite disappointing.”

Cohen’s lead in the NEWS/CNS survey was 23.7 percent in the 1st Congressional District and 27.1 percent in the 2nd District, which Cohen represented in the House of Representatives from 1973 to 1979.

Snowe and McGowan had similar reactions for different reasons to the survey’s results in the 2nd District.

“I’m ecstatic. Any incumbent in New England without a 20 percent lead is in big trouble,” said McGowan. “This clearly indicates that I am closing the gap.”

Snowe claimed that her own nightly tracking surveys show her holding a bigger lead over McGowan than her 17.5 percent edge in the NEWS/CNS poll.

“I’ll be happy if I get anything over 50 percent,” Snowe said. “Given the fact I’m sitting on a 17-point lead, that’s fantastic. … The fact is, my opponent has spent $200,000 and gained only 5 points (since a CNS poll in mid-October).”

The final NEWS/CNS poll showed Snowe beating McGowan 78.3 to 8.7 percent among Republicans interviewed and 50.5 to 34.6 percent among independents, while trailing McGowan 31.5 to 58.3 percent among Democrats interviewed.

Andrews, a relatively unknown state senator from Portland who upset two well-known opponents in last June’s Democratic party, predicted “a very close race” during the final days of the 1st District contest against Emery. The lead in that contest has bobbed up and down, but there were indications in both the NEWS/CNS survey and tracking polls by other Republican candidates indicating a late shift toward Andrews.

Emery claimed that his own tracking surveys show the race “within the (polling) margin of error.”

Both candidates noted that the large 18 percent block of undecided voters could theoretically swing the race to either candidate.

“We went down during the period of the congressional budget fiasco,” said Emery. “It took us a while to come back. Over the weekend we saw people focusing on the race for the first time.”

“I am willing to bet that between 10 and 12 percent of voters won’t make up their minds until they go into the voting booths,” Emery said.

Andrews believes that his own grass-roots organization gives him a big advantage regardless of whether the race closes up, or widens beyond his current 5.6 percent lead. It was that network of volunteers, Andrews said, that propelled him past Attorney General Jim Tierney and Libby Mitchell in the June primary despite polls showing Andrews running well behind the better-known candidates.

“The grass-roots organization … is the heart and soul of our campaign. We have literally thousands of volunteers. That advantage will be the key to this race,” Andrews predicted.