OCTOBER SURPRISE: America’s Hostages in Iran and the Election of Ronald Reagan, by Gary Sick, Random House, 277 pages, $23.

One of the Democrats’ favorite sayings during the 1988 presidential campaign was “Where was George?”

The same phrase could be used in this year’s campaign if you believe the premise of Gary Sick’s controversial book, “October Surprise.”

Sick, who served as an adviser to Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan, believes that members of the 1980 Reagan-Bush campaign team negotiated with the Iranians to delay the release of 52 American hostages in Tehran. The Republicans, Sick states, hoped to ensure an election victory by spoiling the Carter administration’s chances of securing the hostages’ freedom before the November election. Had the hostages been freed before the November election, Carter would have benefited at the polls.

According to Sick, the Carter administration was closing in on a solution to the hostage problem in October when all of a sudden the negotiations cooled off. It appears, the book states, that the Iranians had negotiated a better deal with the Republicans.

Some of the key questions revolve around the important meetings that took place in Madrid and Paris in July and October. It was at these meetings, sources say, that the Republicans arranged a deal with the Iranians.

Republican campaign manager and lover of intrigue William J. Casey happened to be in London for a conference in late July. It would not have been difficult for Casey to arrange a meeting with key operatives in Madrid during his visit to London.

It’s interesting to note that investigators could determine Casey’s whereabouts only about 50 percent of the time between the nomination and the election.

Some of Sick’s sources say Bush attended the Paris meeting in October. Although it seems unlikely that a vice presidential candidate would put himself in such a compromising situation so close to the election, Bush has not provided any evidence that suggests he was not in Paris. During the 1990 prosecution of Richard Brenneke, one of Sick’s sources, the government tried to prove he was lying when he indicated Bush was in Paris on the October weekend in question. The government was unable to convince the jury that Brenneke was lying.

No matter how outrageous Sick’s theory seems, the information in “October Surprise” certainly warrants a congressional investigation, which the House authorized last week.

Naysayers would have you discount Sick’s story because most of the information is based on interviews with liars, cheats and people operating on the margins of the law. No surprises there, Sick says. Who else has the connections to pull off such an operation? One of the reasons for choosing these individuals in the first place is to strengthen a case against them if their cover is blown. The hope is that Joe Six-pack will discount any story from untrustworthy, unconventional operatives.

Sick points out that similar individuals brought about the Iran-Contra affair, another outrageous event. Sick establishes that U.S. arms didn’t start to flow to Iran during the Iran-Contra affair, but in 1981 just after the hostages were freed. It appears the bazaar was open before Oliver North joined the team.

Jim Emple is an assistant design editor on the NEWS display desk.