2nd District Democratic race tough to call

Editor’s Note: This is part of an occasional series on the candidates and issues in Maine’s 1994 political races.

AUGUSTA (AP) — James Mitchell has strengths that go beyond his family name, but John Baldacci’s spaghetti supper-fueled campaign is presenting a serious challenge in the crowded 2nd District Democratic congressional race.

But analysts say the other five contestants have some obvious strengths and weaknesses that make the race in the ethnically and geographically diverse district tough to call.

From the western flank of the sprawling district, scrappy, Farmington-based District Attorney Janet Mills, and James Howaniec, the former mayor of vote-rich Lewiston, are twin threats.

Former congressional aide and newswoman Jean Hay, state Rep. Mary Cathcart and salmon farm laborer Shawn Hallisey were committed to the race before eight-term incumbent Rep. Olympia Snowe decided to go after Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell’s U.S. Senate seat. Of the three, only the politically untested Hallisey is regarded by analysts as no threat.

University of Maine political science Professor Kenneth Hayes, the Democratic nominee in the 2nd District in 1988, dismisses some strategists’ notion that the race will be decided in heavily Democratic Lewiston-Auburn.

Hayes predicts that none of the candidates will have a clear edge in Lewiston, Bangor or any of the district’s other population centers.

The race, he said, will be won by “who’s able to reach out to the outlying areas and develop some kind of identity out there.”

Patrick K. McGowan, who won more votes than any previous Democratic nominee in the district but still lost the last two general elections to Snowe, said the key to victory is being able to break away from the pack.

“You really have to break some glass,” said McGowan, now the New England chief of the federal Small Business Administration in Boston. Tailoring the campaign to Democrats who will vote — like mill workers and party activists — is also a must, McGowan said.

While Mitchell’s name recognition — he is Sen. Mitchell’s nephew — is important, “Baldacci’s name is important, too,” observed Hayes, whose 1988 campaign was run by the younger Mitchell. Baldacci is from a large, politically active family, whose two restaurants make the Baldacci name familiar to many voters.

Other observers note that Mitchell raised more money than all his rivals combined, as of April 1. They see Mitchell’s campaign as the best-run and predict the family tie will go over well with 2nd District voters.

But many refuse to dismiss Mills, a tenacious campaigner with a long record of electoral wins and party involvement. And traditionally heavy turnout in the Lewiston-Auburn and St. John Valley areas could bode well for Howaniec.

Howaniec, stressing his Franco-American heritage, has established a presence in the far-north mill town of Madawaska, where his lawn signs have sprouted abundantly this spring, said Edward McHenry, a mill worker and former Democratic lawmaker.

“The politicians are pushing for Mitchell, but as far as who the people are going to vote for, it’s up in the air,” McHenry said.

Mills has set out for campaign walks through the St. John Valley, stressing her own family ties to the region.