Brennan in lead in TV stations’ poll

AUGUSTA — Maine Democrats sampled recently believe Joseph Brennan would have had the gubernatorial nomination in the bag if the June 14 primary had been held this week.

According to data provided Thursday to the Bangor Daily News from a Newscenter Bullet Poll conducted by WLBZ Channel 2 in Bangor and WCSH 6ALIVE in Portland, Brennan was the clear favorite among 63 percent of 500 people randomly surveyed across the state.

The question posed over the telephone by pollsters Tuesday and Wednesday was: “If the Democratic primary election were held today and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for?”

Portland City Council member Tom Allen finished a distant second in the poll with 19 percent followed by former University of Maine Chancellor Robert Woodbury, with 6 percent; University of Southern Maine professor Richard Barringer, with 5 percent, and Gray legislator Donnell Carroll coming in last with 2 percent approval.

Twenty-four, or 5 percent, of the respondents were undecided on the Democratic contest — a significant decrease in that category when compared with attitudes at last weekend’s Democratic convention. The dwindling number of fence-sitters could mean that many Democrats have made up their minds.

The poll was reputed to have an accuracy level of plus or minus 4.5 percent. Subdivided by gender and age categories, the poll’s percentage of support to the candidates in those subgroupings varied only slightly from the overall figures.

Although Brennan was on a campaign tour bus when the poll results were released, Phil Merrill, his campaign manager, said the former governor and congressman’s staff were flattered by the poll’s results. He insisted, however, that the numbers had to be greeted with some skepticism.

“That number I think is just artificially high,” Merrill said. “We don’t expect a number like that. But we have seen that in the last six days, people seem to be making up their minds in droves. While (the 63 percent) seems somewhat extreme from what we’ve been seeing, the number of undecideds have just been going to Joe.”

Allen’s campaign manager, Dennis Bailey, was astonished by the Newscenter poll.

“This just flies in the face of everything we’re hearing and seeing, and it just doesn’t make very much sense,” Bailey said. “I’d really like to see the poll to see what kind of screening questions they asked. If this is just a name recognition poll, then Brennan is going to win that for sure.”

Barringer, who was endorsed Wednesday by the Maine Times weekly newspaper, was campaigning in York County and unavailable for comment. His campaign manager, Susan Sargent, was nonplused by Brennan’s wide margin of support.

“Our poll is on Election Day and that’s the only one that really counts — the one in which people vote,” she said. “We’re just working as hard as we can in these final days. We’re continuing to raise money and get our message out. If we allowed ourselves to be whipped around by all these little polls, we’d be basket cases.”

Bailey agreed and recalled a 1990 television poll taken two weeks before the June primary when he was working in Tom Andrews’ 1st District congressional campaign. The television station’s poll showed Andrews finishing third.

“The station said only two candidates had a chance of winning: Jim Tierney and Libby Mitchell,” Bailey said. “Where are they now?”