Labor Day outlook

Secretary of Labor Robert B. Reich’s prognosis for the economy is upbeat, as is to be expected in an election year. But as his commentary on today’s Oped page shows, the good news does not carry far beneath the surface of the latest unemployment rates.

Secretary Reich says the outlook for the economy is, “Clearly positive in terms of the growing number of good jobs, a declining level of non-inflationary unemployment and a gradual but steady movement toward more diversity.” Maine’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was unchanged from June at 5.5 percent, an encouraging figure. But the number hides the continued anxiety many workers in the state feel about the future of their jobs.

A significant reason for this may be that the unemployment number has become increasingly deceptive as more part-time and chronically unemployed workers are left off the rolls. This may be an unfortunate part of the explanation for the relatively low official unemployment rate without the commensurate inflation.

A second reason deals more directly with Labor Day itself. Weakened labor unions are less likely to be able now than in the past to push inflation through wage increases. That may allow more people to be employed but holds down incomes for workers across the nation. International competition also keeps businesses from contributing to inflation.

The secretary points out that “the economy is strong. Profits claim their highest share of national output in two decades,” but “the fruits of this rich economy must be within the reach of all hard-working Americans.” The trend, however, seems to be moving in the opposite direction. And no sunny forecasts about the economic health of the country will make the people who currently are not measured in that growth feel any better about their situation.