Candidates key efforts in southern Maine> Turnout in Cumberland, York merits attention

AUGUSTA — Are there really “two Maines” in Maine politics — the rich, urban south which is showered with attention and the poor, rural north which is neglected and overlooked?

Looking at the schedules of the four candidates for U.S. Senate, you might think you were witnessing the “two Maines” theory at work. While all the candidates have made forays to Bangor, and points north and east, they all seem to be concentrating their time in more populous, vote-rich southern Maine.

“What it drives home is that’s where the people are now,” said Richard Barringer, a University of Southern Maine professor who coined the “two Maines” concept back in 1983, “you can’t blame politicians for going where the votes are. This is a country that’s run by electoral majorities.”

Barringer said both Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Joseph Brennan are trying to win the votes of suburban women, so it makes sense for them to campaign in southern Maine and along the coast.

“If it’s justified, it’s justified by the fact that almost half the votes in a general election come out of York and Cumberland counties,” said Barringer. “But if they spend half their time campaigning in those counties, then the other half of their time has to be split between the other 14 counties.”

According to election results tabulated by the Bangor Daily News, the combined votes of York and Cumberland counties represented 35 percent of the statewide total in both the 1992 presidential election and the 1994 gubernatorial election.

Collins has roots in northern Maine and did well throughout the region in the 1994 campaign for governor. She was born and raised in Caribou and now lives in Bangor.

But for Collins to succeed she has to win more votes in places like Lewiston, with its heavy concentration of Democrats, than she did in 1994. Thus she’s spending a lot of time campaigning in southern and central Maine.

“I don’t think the people of the 2nd District are too concerned about Susan not representing them. She’s from there and she knows the area,” said Michael Townsend, Collins’ press secretary, “Susan needs to spend time in areas like Lewiston that have a lot of Democrats and independents.”

Collins plans a rally in Bangor with Arizona Sen. John McCain on the morning of Oct. 7, then it will be back to southern Maine for eight to 10 more days of campaigning there, according to Townsend.

“It goes in cycles. At the moment, we are spending time in southern Maine,” Townsend said. “We went to Washington County last Thursday [Sept. 26], but it’s a couple-hour drive to get there and back from Bangor. You can’t hit another part of the state as easily the same day as you can in York County and Cumberland County.”

Townsend said before the Nov. 5 election, Collins would make a visit to every Maine county at least once.

Brennan has always been associated with Portland, where he grew up and now lives. Maine’s largest city is heavily Democratic and always gives Brennan a big boost. Nonetheless, Brennan is still spending lots of time campaigning in Portland and surrounding communities.

Todd Webster, Brennan’s spokesman, said, “Joe Brennan has been campaigning all over the state. But you want to go where the votes are.”

Brennan made a swing through Orono, Old Town, Ellsworth and Bangor on the weekend. Sen. John O’Dea, D-Orono, is coordinating his eastern Maine appearances. But Webster did not know the next time Brennan would pay a visit to eastern Maine.

“I think they go where the votes are, where the votes are perceived to be,” said Bill Clarke, an independent Senate candidate from Greene, “I have been trying to spread it out geographically.”

Clarke won’t be able to do as much traveling as Brennan and Collins because he’s running a low-budget campaign and has kept working at his job in Lewiston during the workweek.

“We’ve had a presence at every county fair and we haven’t seen the other candidates with a physical presence there,” said Clarke, who plans to swing through Aroostook County in the campaign’s final weeks.

Jane Scease, one of two campaign managers for independent John Rensenbrink of Topsham, said the candidate endorsed by the Green Party had been to Presque Isle in the summer and to Bangor, Blue Hill and Orono more recently. She said he’s been invited to a candidate forum in Pittsfield.

“A lot of it depends on where they’re invited,” said Scease, “there are less invitations from the north. For whatever reason, they don’t expect candidates to go up there. A lot of the trouble is the time it takes to get from Brunswick and Portland up to these areas.”

Kenneth Palmer, a University of Maine political science professor, said another reason candidates focus so much of their time in the cities of southern Maine is that that is where news media are concentrated. Candidates can get more statewide coverage of a Portland event by television, radio and newspapers than they can of the same event in Presque Isle.