Give it the gas

The Board of Environmental Protection has plenty to consider as it decides the future of the Maritimes & Northeast pipeline through Maine. But it can shelve at least one concern that arose repeatedly at recent public hearings on the issue: the amount of natural gas off Sable Island.

A Houston-based market consultant recently estimated that gas off Nova Scotia would not last more than 25 years. Maritimes & Northeast referred to a Canadian study suggesting there may be at least 100 years worth of gas. But take the worst case: The Sable Island site contains enough gas to last until 2025.

The Maine Green Party has seized on this idea, concluding that Martimes & Northeast has cooked up a “get-rich-quick scheme.” But 25 years isn’t quick. Think back to what Maine’s energy situation was like 25 years ago. The state was heavily dependent on imported oil — which was expected to hit $100 a barrel, a brand new Maine Yankee nuclear plant was still cranking up toward full power and Mainers were sitting in gas lines wondering about those zippy little Japanese cars. Twenty-five years from now, the energy picture will be equally changed.

How much gas lies offshore matters to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which will set a tariff for transportation costs based in part on the volume of gas expected to run through the Maritimes & Northeast pipeline. But the overall price of gas is constrained by competition. Unlike the old utility models of telephone wires and electricity, Mainers have a choice when it comes to fuel. If the price of natural gas is not competitive with oil, it will not sell. If it doesn’t sell, nobody is going to get rich quick or at all.

In a more important sense, however, the amount of gas off Sable Island is irrelevant because gas lines flow both ways. Pipes that can carry gas from Canada through Maine to Massachusetts can carry gas from any other point in the nationwide grid back into Maine. That is to say, Maine will have natural gas available as long as the world has natural gas.

The gas will sell — or not sell — depending on its price compared with other fuels. That is the risk being undertaken by a private enterprise. Public money is not being used for this project, although public natural resources certainly are. That’s where the BEP comes in and where questions about the pipeline’s effect on the environment should be considered. Choosing the best route for the pipe, choosing the least-harmful drilling techniques, debating alternatives should lead the board to finding the highest benefit for Maine people vs. the impact the pipe will have on the environment.

The pipeline is not, as the Green Party charges, a get-rich-quick scheme; it is a get-rich-slow scheme. The investors will demand healthy returns on their money, but they would be foolhardy to expect the pipe to produce Megabucks-in-a-tube. As with the state, the benefits of natural gas will flow over the long-term.