Russia and the U.S.

Without the Red Square parades of Soviet troops to keep Americans attuned to events in Moscow, it is difficult to see immediately the problems a weakened and confused Boris Yeltsin presents to the United States. But this country has an important stake in seeing the reforms initiated under the Russian president continue — with or without him.

Until less than a month ago President Yeltsin intended to run for re-election in 2000. But that was before he was forced to devalue by one-third the value of the ruble against the dollar and suffer a self-inflicted vote of no confidence by firing members of his government. Now he will be fortunate to serve out his term. The leading opponents for the presidency are both more likely to reject many of his Western-style reforms, according to news reports.

President Yeltsin’s respose has been to revive the career of Prime Minister Viktor S. Chernomyrdin, a man once seen as too Soviet for a reform government. His appointment may please some former communists, but currency traders responded this week by knocking the ruble down another 9 percent while Russia’s major banks circled in the wagons in a merger that hardly inspires confidence.

President Bill Clinton will survey this financial meltdown firsthand when he visits next week. Already, the White House has prepared to continue its relationship with Russia without Mr. Yeltsin, but it should have little hope of a smooth transition of power in Moscow. The deluge isn’t far behind the current leader.

Besides making life miserable for the average Russian, another depression in that country would harm U.S. interests abroad. Continued talks on arms reductions, for instance, would take a back seat to the economic crisis, as would a coordinated effort to curb international terrorism. And though Russia during the 1990s increased its dependence on foreign goods, the lowly valued ruble will buy fewer and fewer imports, affecting not only trade balances but trade agreements: How would the United States form a trade pact with a country that lacks a functioning economy?

All of the uncertainties in Russia leads some commentators to wonder whether the old communist rulers will rise again there. Perhaps, but more likely is the emergence of a series of unstable, inward-looking governments, rife with infighting and clan feuds. Russia and the world loses if this happens.