The reaction after the recent opinion by Canada’s Supreme Court on the right of Quebec to secede from the nation was that the court sided, at different points, with both sides. But a closer look suggests supporters of Quebec Premier Lucien Bouchard are likely to spend this fall thinking hard about how to proceed with a referendum.

The court both affirmed that the rest of Canada would be obliged to negotiate Quebec’s independence if Quebecers approved a referendum — satisfying the separatists — but emphasized the vote must pass by a significant majority — aiding the federal government. Given the 49 percent approval for seccession in a 1995 vote, a majority well over 50 percent is within reach. However, Howard Cody, UMaine associate professor of political science and Canadian studies, points to two other parts of the opinion that complicate such a vote.

Any vote must be taken on a clearly understood question, the court said, a issue of contention on previous votes. This means, according to Professor Cody, that the federal government could have a say in how Quebec words such a question or could use that portion of the court’s opinion to argue that the vote should be voided were it to pass. That would send the whole thing back to court.

Secondly, the opinion indicated that any post-vote negotiations would have to include other provinces, not just the federal government. This is a hugely complicating factor. Professor Cody observed that British Columbia and Alberta particularly will have their own sets of demands — perhaps even lesser forms of their own sovereignty — to be met before they agree to Quebec independence.

Even with its falling dollar, Canada is easily the largest and most stable trading partner for the United States. One-fifth of U.S. world trade — more than $1 billion in goods and services daily — is with Canada. Any breakup of that nation naturally would be harmful to this relationship and the time-tested cooperation along the two nations’ border. In that sense, the court’s opinion happened to have favored U.S. interests.

Sometime soon, Premier Bouchard will decide whether to call an election now or wait until the polls are less close for the Parti Quebecois. After that, Canada’s future will again be considered, only this time the guidance from the Supreme Court lays out a set of expectations that a yes vote only begins to meet.