Holbrooke trumps again

Forced to chose between continuing his slaughter of Kosovo Albanians and the prospect of being on the receiving end of punishing air strikes, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic blinked Monday. Give some credit to the U.N. Security Council, some to NATO, but give most to U.S. special envoy to the Balkans, Richard Holbrooke, the master of blinkmanship.

The deal will put some 2,000 international watchdogs to work verifying that Milosevec’s Serb forces are withdrawing from the province of Kosovo and allowing humanitarian agencies to deliver aid to the estimated 275,000 Kosovars now huddled under makeshift plastic tents in the frigid mountains.

It is highly doubtful that the brutal Milosevec relented after seeing television images of the devastation he created. Nor is it likely that NATO’s four-day deadline for compliance was decisive — NATO’s been delivering ultimatums for months. The yellowing Security Council resolution calling for an end to the Kosovo assault has all the clout of a Security Council resolution. The difference was Holbrooke. He understands that the threat of force must be used sparingly and must backed up if it is to mean anything; moreover, he understands that genocidal madmen such as Milosevec understand the same concept.

Milosevec got his first taste of NATO air power three years ago, after he’d already accomplished what he’d set out to do with the massacre of more than a quarter-million Bosnians. He was convinced NATO had lost its resolve, he was stonewalling at the Dayton peace talks called to end that civil war. Then he got outfoxed by Holbrooke. In a play that should make the all-time diplomacy highlight reel, Holbrooke gave Milosevec one last warning to get serious and put his luggage out in the Dayton hotel hallway for emphasis. Milosevec didn’t know the suitcases were empty, but he knew Holbrooke meant business and he caved in.

Now, once again, the international organizations charged with keeping the peace have allowed Milosevec to run amok. The destruction of Kosovo has been going on since February. It took the Security Council seven months to call for a cease fire, it took NATO eight months to ready for action, amid growing chorus of doubts about NATO’s.

Certainly, the sight of B-52s and stealth aircraft assembling in the region got Milosevec’s attention, but probably not as much as the sight of his worst nightmare at the bargaining table. Milosevec now has 96 hours to keep his commitments. With Holbrooke on his case, the odds are he will.