Follow the bouncing budget

They’re down. They’re up! They’re down. They’re up! The forecasts for Maine state revenues seem to bounce like basketballs at tournament time. But while the dribble of money coming into Augusta keeps program and tax fans cheering, lawmakers should keep a perspective on how small these forecasted shifts are in the context of the total budget. In short, the unexpected spurt in revenues is not a reason to plan major new initiatives.

The latest forecasts, expected to be considered by the Revenue Forecast Committee today, add $79 million to the current budget and $76.5 million to the next biennium. Until last week, forecasters were predicting that those numbers would be smaller — on the order of $10 million or $20 million. Some of the money can be attributed to a rise in estate taxes, but even more comes from a so-far inexplicable increase in income taxes. The forecasters no doubt are weary of consistently discovering that they have undercounted revenues, just as legislators and Gov. Angus King are tired of trying to build a budget on numbers that just won’t stay still.

Nevertheless, the current budget spends $4.4 billion over the biennium. An additional $79 million adds less than 2 percent to that. Given the list of projects and underfunded current programs already lined up in the Legislature this session, that money won’t go far. The new expenses in Gov. King’s supplemental budget, for instance, would create a structural gap of $300 million in the next biennium; the revenue reprojection merely pushes the gap down closer to $200 million. Legislators, of course, have proposals of their own that will be incorporated in the budget.

New money guarantees a new fight from advocates of tax cuts and expanded programs, but the governor, Republicans and Democrats should keep budget additions modest — more modest than their current proposals — while spending the new money on an issue all sides support: increasing General Purpose Aid to Education. The money provides towns with the resources they need to meet the tough demands of Learning Results, the statewide education standards, and can provide major tax relief to property owners.

Given the higher revenue projections through 2003, lawmakers should be comfortable increasing this ongoing expense. The governor has expressed interest in adding to the current level of GPA; Democrats have a couple of plans for significant increases; and Republicans coupled GPA with school renovations and said they support an additional $100 million in spending in that area.

That kind of agreement doesn’t happen often in government. Maine should take advantage of the good news from the revenue forecast and pass it on to local school districts and property taxpayers.