Gov. George W. Bush blames his primary defeats in New Hampshire and this week in Michigan on Democrats and independents making mischief with the Republican nomination process. He says everything will be fine once the campaign trail reaches closed-primary states, where only registered Republicans count.

The first statement is wrong. The second, a recipe for defeat in November.

The non-Republicans voting for Arizona Sen. John McCain are not trying to cause trouble; they are trying to elect a man they see as having the character and convictions to be a good president. Every credible poll shows Sen. McCain romping over either Democratic contender. Democratic Party leaders may not be the most astute strategists ever to come down the pike, but they are not so clueless as to deliberately engineer the nomination of a guy they have every reason to believe will demolish their guy in the general election.

The Republican Party can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by continuing to insist that the nomination must be decided by party regulars. As the elections of 1992 and 1996 demonstrated, Republicans don’t win the presidency when their candidate appeals only to the registered rank-and-file. Republicans do win the presidency when their candidate reaches across party lines to form a new, label-defying majority. Without the Reagan Democrats, there would have been no President Reagan. How quickly the party of the elephant forgets.

Gov. Bush established himself as the early front-runner by raising an enormous amount of money and by locking up the endorsements of most Republican governors and members of Congress. Back then, the message from the campaign was clear: Our candidate will win; the time to jump on the bandwagon is now. Names are being taken.

In the now that is now, many early supporters are apoplectic over the squandered fortune and deeply worried about their candidate’s judgment. The governor rebounded from his hammering in New Hampshire with a victory in South Carolina, but it was victory that came at a high price. The appearance at the racist, anti-Catholic Bob Jones University was disastrous, as was the enlistment of a fringe veteran’s group to trash Sen. McCain’s valorous record of service to his country. In South Carolina, Gov. Bush staked claim to his party’s right wing. Trouble is, the election will be won from the center.

Add to that the clear message from voters that the inevitability and heir-apparent tone of the Bush campaign is not ringing true, that the recent displays of petulance and expediency are offensive, and those early supporters — especially the members of Congress and governors — have reason to be having second thoughts. Jumping directly from the Bush camp to the McCain camp would be rash. Relocating to the neutral zone would be wise. Voters use the primary season as a time to get to know the candidates, to weight their positions on specific issues and to judge overall character. Members of Congress and governors owe themselves the same luxury.

Both major parties often commit the error of making too much of party affiliation. Most voters use party affiliation as a starting point in the selection process, but, in the end, people vote for the person. In Sen. McCain, voters see a person of moderate-to-conservative views, they see courage, they see a strong independent streak. In short, they see the kind person they’d like to see in themselves.