Electing Mr. Putin

If either George W. Bush or Al Gore enjoys a 40-percentage-point lead in the polls over his opponent on Nov. 3, he probably won’t worry too much about how things turn out on Nov. 17. But in Russia, where Vladimir Putin, the current president, enjoys just such a commanding lead over his nearest competitor, a 40-point poll lead is something to worry about.

Russians, new to elections that aren’t farce, largely believe Mr. Putin will be elected, regardless of their participation. In that, perhaps, Russian elections share a similarity with those in America.

And the same polls that put Mr. Putin well ahead of the Communist candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, show that Russians hardly endorse Mr. Putin’s policy goals. If anything, they question the integrity and policies of the former KGB officer, with some comparing him to a wolf — cunning, secretive, volatile and even deadly.

In short, Russians know little more about Mr. Putin than many Westerners do, are uncertain of his abilities and policies and wonder whether he has the skills and personal strengths needed to lead his nation. If that sounds like a typical assessment of a U.S. presidential campaign, it is, except that the outcome is less in doubt.

But Russians do know that Mr. Putin is not Josef Stalin. They know he is not Boris Yeltsin. And they strongly believe that whatever Mr. Putin stands for, he is the best bet, among a sea of poor alternatives, for getting Russia’s economy on track and removing the racketeering, graft, cronyism and ruinous government interventions that have marked Russia’s post-communist years.

The question is, will they show up at the polls on March 26, and will they vote expressly for Mr. Putin? In Russia, unlike America, people can vote for “none of the above.” And while we might envy them for that ability, the net result is that every nonvote cast eats further into Mr. Putin’s presumed victory. Add in a low voter turnout, and the acting president may have to endure a runoff vote later in the year.

Mr. Putin has asked his countrymen to give him a clear mandate on March 26, to expressly endorse him and avoid the $3.5 million expense a runoff campaign could cost. But it isn’t the money that matters, it’s the mandate. Without it, Mr. Putin will not have the leverage to make some badly needed changes.

The president’s appeal to Russians’ wallets, and even his urging to simply get on with the inevitable, might win the day for him in fine order. The alternative of halfway communism or more years plain stagnation is too much to consider.