Working in Maine

Maine’s unemployment figures released last week showed rock-bottom rates in much of the state, and lower than usual rates in the remainder. In the longest economic expansion in the nation’s history, that’s not so surprising. The change worth following was that, for the first time in recent memory, Maine counties without exception grew in the absolute number of workers employed.

Even as Maine’s economy expanded throughout the 1990s, its population in northern Maine fell. The boom clearly was driven from the south, attracting workers statewide and leaving some parts of the state in jeopardy of being unable to recover for lack of people. That changed between 1999 and the first quarter of 2000. The change represents a hope that the northern half of the state has not been able to experience for some time.

Consider: Five years ago, the Millinocket-East Millinocket area had 5,280 wokers in its April civilian labor force, according to the state Department of Labor. That number fell slightly year by year to 5,150 in 1999. This year, it started back up, and was at 5,300 last month. The same was true for the Calais region: at 5,370 in 1995; down to 5,130 by ’99; up to 5,440 last month. And again in Augusta: 45,060 five years ago; 44,680 last year; 46,730 last month. And even those market regions outside of the very southern portion of Maine that were not down in the number of available workers during the last five years certainly weren’t keeping pace with national averages.

A quarter’s worth of good economic news doesn’t mean that Maine has overcome some of its long-term challenges to keeping the entire state vital and growing. Its birth rate remains among the lowest in the country and its population still is the fourth oldest — in ’98, six of its counties had fewer births than deaths. Maine workers will still find pay rates better just about anywhere else in the Northeast. And, perhaps most importantly, Maine enters the 21st century still heavily reliant on 19th century industries.

But none of this is likely to be changed without a sustained boost from a growing economy — it’s hard to persuade people to move to a region without at least the chance of earning a living. The state is getting that boost now, and how the King administration and the Legislature take advantage of it during the next year or two could decide what Maine looks like for decades to come. The state has an opportunity to change its course after years of losing of a slow downward drift. It cannot afford to miss it.