The festivities surrounding the inauguration of President George W. Bush also marked the 10th anniversary of the event that defined the presidency of his father, the launching of the air campaign that began the 1991 Gulf War. The coincidence, barely noted here as a historical footnote, was widely observed in Iraq, where Saddam Hussein used the occasion to declare victory.

Ten years ago, such a declaration would have seemed absurd. The Gulf War, after all, was one of the most decisive events in military history: Iraq was driven from Kuwait, its mighty army obliterated, its leader humiliated. Although the coalition led by Bush, Schwarzkopf and Powell stopped short of Baghdad, Hussein was so damaged, so powerless, it surely would be only a matter of time, a very short time, before the Iraqi people arose in revolt.

They arose and they were crushed without mercy. Today, Hussein’s grip on his country is tighter than ever, his esteem in the Middle East world soars, his aid to the Palestinians has made him a hero. The coalition nations have lost interest in the economic sanctions that were supposed to make Iraq heel and the Arab nations that supported the coalition now support Iraq’s demand that the sanctions be lifted.

In the context of survival, Saddam Hussein’s declaration of victory does not seem so absurd. Hussein’s point, made in an impassioned address to his nation and his Arab neighbors last week, was that, despite the superior military and economic forces thrown against it, Iraq remains and therefore prevails.

It is a point that cannot be dismissed. It has been more than two years since Hussein tossed U.N. weapons inspectors out of Iraq and, although no one can say to what extent Iraq has rebuilt its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs, it is nearly certain that the rebuilding is well under way. Candidate Bush asserted that such a move by Hussein would be reason “to take him out.” Whether and how to back up that assertion will be one of the first foreign policy decisions President Bush will have to make.

It is a decision, a confrontation, Hussein seems to be pushing. His strident appeals for Arab unity in the “liberation” of Palestinian lands and the destruction of Israel are an important shift from his practice until recently of excoriating the Arab nations that backed the coalition. His direct financial aid to Palestinians – payments of $10,000 to the families of those killed by Israeli troops – has made him hugely popular in the streets. If Hussein forces a Gulf War II, he will not repeat the mistake of doing so with a divided Arab world.

This time, in fact, the division is within the other side. Vice President Cheney – Defense Secretary Cheney during Gulf War I – says the key to ousting Hussein is to keep up the constant pressure of the sanctions, yet the U.S. and Britain are the only two coalition nations that even pretend to remain interested in sanctions or in preserving the Northern Iraq no-fly zones. Secretary of State Powell – then-Gen. Powell – expresses pessimism about the viability of an Iraqi opposition, yet the president he serves supports the 1998 Iraqi Liberation Act that provides up to $97 million in arms and training (so far, the Pentagon has only figured out how to spend $2 million) and the recent congressional appropriation of $12 million to beef up opposition camps in Northern Iraq that probably don’t exist. Saddam Hussein, despite his bluster and delusion, does exist. And another President Bush must deal with him.