AUGUSTA – The population growth in southern Maine means the state’s sprawling 2nd Congressional District, already the largest east of the Mississippi River, will grow even bigger when its boundary with the state’s only other district is redrawn.

Where the line is drawn could spark a major political battle.

“If you add up York, Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Lincoln and Kennebec [counties], you are 836 [people] from an ideal number in a district,” said Dave Emery, a Republican who served in Congress from the 1st District. “That is pretty appealing.”

He said it is likely a town or two may have to be moved across county lines to get the count even closer. The 1st District now has 666,936 residents, according to the 2000 Census, with 607,987 in the 2nd District. That means the ideal shift would be 29,474 from the 1st District to the 2nd District.

“Well, I don’t think it will ever be ideal,” said Colby College professor Sandy Maisel, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 1976. “But I think the effort will be to get as close as possible without major changes from the current boundary.”

Since 1960, when Maine lost its 3rd Congressional District, the boundaries have been roughly the same. First, part of Waldo County was shifted from the 1st District to the 2nd District, and then the remainder of Waldo County and a few towns in Kennebec County were shifted to keep the districts in a rough population balance.

“We have a generation of Mainers that have become used to the basic boundary lines between the districts,” Maisel said. “I don’t think people will want to radically change that.”

But where to draw the line could spark a debate during this session of the Legislature.

Former GOP 2nd District nominee Jon Riesman, a professor at the University of Maine at Machias, argues that a study commission should be created now to consider carefully the impact of any new boundaries to be drawn in two years.

Lawmakers are considering such a proposal but nothing has been voted on yet.

“The 2nd District, already the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River, will have to add people,” Riesman said. “If the result is an even larger district, while further compacting the 1st, the disparities and differences between rural and urban Maine will continue to grow and fester.”

He said it might be better to shift counties such as Androscoggin and Oxford to the 1st District and shift Kennebec and Knox to the 2nd District.

“I think an independent look at all the options is warranted,” he said.

Bowdoin College professor Chris Potholm said that while the redistricting commission can look at a wide range of options, such major shifts of areas have failed in the past. In 1983, Democrats proposed to move Androscoggin County from the 2nd District to the 1st District. That would have put Olympia Snowe and John McKernan, both Republican House members at the time, in the same district.

“That, understandably, did not fly,” Potholm said.

Both parties have several potential candidates in Oxford and Androscoggin counties considering a run for the 2nd District in 2002. They are likely to be as concerned about a major change as McKernan and Snowe were in 1983.

The state has had two members of the U.S. House of Representatives since 1962, losing a seat after the 1960 Census. The state once boasted eight members of Congress, but that was in the 1830s when the state had a significant population when compared to the rest of the country.

Richard Sherwood of the State Planning Office, who has worked on redistricting for more than 30 years, believes Maine will continue to have two representatives in Congress through the next census in 2010.

“The crystal ball gets a bit murky beyond then,” he said. “If the rest of the country grows much faster than Maine, we could lose the second seat. But that is really hard to say.”