Flood danger recedes; not over Experts say rain could alter forecast

AUGUSTA – Although the warm days and cool nights this month have helped prevent any flooding to date, the ingredients are in place for such a disaster, a weather official said Wednesday.

“There’s no serious flooding imminent, but the ingredients are still there – if we get a large rain this month, we still could be in trouble,” Hendricus Lulofs, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service Bureau in Caribou, said Wednesday.

Lulofs joined other members of the River Flow Advisory Commission in Augusta to discuss the state’s current river conditions.

Because of the large amount of water in the snowpack at the headwaters of major streams and rivers, the threat of flooding has been higher this year than in more recent years.

The River Flow Advisory Commission, which is comprised of state, federal and industry representatives with an interest in hydrologic issues, has been meeting periodically to discuss the current river flows.

“A lot of our flood potential is not dictated by what’s outside our windows but at the headwaters of the rivers,” Lulofs said. There is still 8 inches to 10 inches of water in the snowpack with a little more in the western mountains, he noted.

Looking ahead weather-wise, Lulofs said as much as three-fourths of an inch of precipitation is predicted for Thursday and Friday, along with a warming trend from Thursday through Saturday.

That combination, he said, could lead to some increased flows over the next few days. Cooler temperatures predicted for next week should slow the melt, the NWS official said.

Lulofs warned that the water and snowpack still will be at the headwaters, and another rain event could spell trouble.

“We’re not out of the woods once we get past this weekend,” he said. “We need to be alert right through the rest of the month.”

Ice jams also could cause a problem on the Piscataquis River. The Piscataquis, St. John and Aroostook rivers are ice covered, but the threat of an ice jam is greater this year on the Piscataquis, Lulofs said. The Kennebec and Androscoggin rivers have open water.

Robert Wilson, Piscataquis County Emergency Management Agency director, said there was little concern at this time about flooding on the Piscataquis River.

“The flow is well below flood stage at this moment,” he said.

All “the hype” about the Piscataquis River and its condition, including an erroneous report aired by a Bangor television station that the Piscataquis River would reach flood stage Wednesday, has scared people, Guilford Town Manager Robert Littlefield said Tuesday.

“I’d be willing to bet the river is the lowest at this date than it has been in the last 50 years,” Littlefield said.

His town was one of the communities hardest hit by the flood of 1987.

“Hey, it’s good to watch the river and be ready, but crying wolf is not a good thing,” he said.

Lulofs said preparation is a key, and he urged residents and businesses that occupy land in the flood plains or along rivers to review their evacuation plans in the event of flooding.

These residents and businesses should make this review each spring, Lulofs said.