The conservative humorist P.J. O’Rourke once wrote something to the effect that giving Congress the power to tax and spend is like giving a teen-ager car keys and liquor. While the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut Wednesday may not bring about drunken and bloody mayhem, there is the distinct likelihood of a hangover.
The surprise half-point interest rate reduction is the most aggressive action taken by the nation’s central bank in 16 years and brings the total reduction to two points in the last four months. The rationale for the stunner was the urgent need to boost what is called corporate confidence, business’ willingness to invest in itself.
This current economic slump is a puzzler. Sales tax revenues in almost all states are way down, yet data show consumer spending and retail inventories sagging only slightly and dreaded inflation is nowhere to be found. Corporate earnings are dreadful, yet executive compensation remains robust and the gap between CEO and worker pay widens. There may be lots of productive reasons to reduce interest rates, such as cheaper mortgages and more affordable education loans, but the need to boost confidence – corporate or consumer – is a case yet to be made.
The United States has just experienced the longest uninterrupted economic expansion in its history. There may be a lot of shiny new toys to show for it, but little else; the country’s manufacturing base has rotted away for lack of investment, bankruptcies have soared, consumer debt is outrageously high and this remains the only developed country with a negative saving rate.
This is not to say the cheaper money the cut brings isn’t good. But the United States has been swimming in money for the last decade and hasn’t much to show for it, other than developing the bad habit of looking to a tinkering Fed for a bailout. With low interest rates, low inflation and still-low unemployment, this would be a good time for some fiscal maturity – saving and building for the future, paying bills and meeting obligations, that sort of thing. Congress could lead the way on this, or we could all party hearty and deal with the morning after when it comes.
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