South to gain ground in capital

AUGUSTA – 2000 Census data bolster what political analysts have expected. Political power in Maine will shift dramatically to the south when legislative districts are redrawn in two years. And the major parties already are gearing up for the political battle of the decade.

“No doubt this is going to be a major battle, a real political fight,” said Bowdoin College professor Chris Potholm. “And it will be as much a fight among party members as between the parties.”

With many rural districts growing larger geographically and city districts shrinking, the potential for an incumbent having to go head to head with another incumbent for the same House or Senate seat is increased. In the past, fights between members of the same party often have been far more vigorous than those between Republicans and Democrats.

“Oh yes, just moving a boundary line a few blocks could put two or three or more incumbents in the same district,” said former Republican Rep. Dave Emery, who has worked on the last three reapportionment commissions in Maine. “In fact, it has put more than that in the same district. And there is nothing like a fight within the family.”

Neither party formally has established redistricting committees, but the GOP is expected to work with Emery and others to try to maximize the new districts to benefit Republicans. Democratic Party Chairwoman Gwethalyn Phillips said Democrats are negotiating with a consultant and will set up a working group this spring to start reviewing the census data with the same goal in mind.

“While we need to wait and further analyze the information, it is clear we will see a shift from the north to the south and from the cities to the suburbs,” she said.

In fact, nine of the 10 House districts with the most population growth are in Cumberland and York counties. The exception is District 124 in Penobscot County, consisting of Hermon, Carmel, Etna, Plymouth and part of Levant. All but two of the top population losers are in the 2nd Congressional District. Augusta and Lewiston have two House districts each among the largest losers.

Seven of the top gainers in the Senate have towns in Cumberland County or York County, and it is in the Senate where growth along the coast is evident. Both the Knox County and Lincoln County Senate districts ranked among the top 10 in growth.

The move from cities to suburbs also is clear in Androscoggin County. Senate District 21, which includes most of Lewiston, is among the top 10 losers. Nearby District 20, which stretches from Greene to Livermore, is among the top gainers.

Aroostook County lost nearly 13,000 residents, mostly attributable to the closing of Loring Air Force Base in Limestone. That means it will be the big loser when lines are redrawn, with one full House seat and part of another moving south. The geographically large Senate districts in The County will grow even larger.

Emery said both parties face a tremendous amount of work in looking at the detailed demographics provided by the census. He said he believes the GOP will benefit by the growth in the rural and suburban areas of York and Cumberland counties, but that is not necessarily true across the state.

“There has been growth in the small towns around Lewiston, but you can’t say those are Republican votes,” he said. “It may well be they are strongly Democratic Franco-Americans that moved from Lewiston but did not leave their political preferences on Lisbon Street.”

Phillips said it is that type of detailed, town-by-town analysis of voters that both parties will need to make before boundaries are redrawn. But, she said, politics is more than demographics.