Maine subject to tropical storms Changing weather conditions make future hurricanes more likely

PORTLAND – Maine is more likely to be hit by a tropical storm like Barry, which was headed for the Gulf Coast on Monday, than a hurricane, meteorologists say.

On average, a tropical storm strikes Maine once every six years, while a hurricane hits once every 10 or 11 years, according to Al Wheeler of the National Weather Service in Gray.

Even though powerful storms aren’t an annual event in Maine, residents shouldn’t be too complacent. Hurricane forecasters predict more-frequent and more-destructive storms for the next 25 to 40 years for states on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

During that period, warmer ocean temperatures and a change in wind patterns will make conditions more conducive to hurricanes, said Stanley Goldenberg, research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“When we see this combination, we better be prepared for a very busy period for hurricane activity,” Goldenberg said.

William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, predicts 12 named storms and seven hurricanes in 2001, three of them major. He estimates the probability of one or more major hurricanes making landfall in 2001 along the East Coast at 50 percent, compared with a 31 percent average in the last century.

When hurricanes strike in Maine, areas from York County north to Portland have the most flooding, said Art Cleaves of the Maine Emergency Management Agency.

One of the most destructive hurricanes to hit Maine was one in 1938 that left half of the state without phones and lights for three days, but took a much greater toll in lives and property along the southern New England coast.

Other memorable New England storms include hurricanes Carol and Edna in 1954; Hurricane Gloria in 1985; and Hurricane Bob in 1991, which killed 11 New Englanders and knocked out power for days in parts of Maine.