Task force braces for drought dilemma Much of state 10 inches under normal rainfall

AUGUSTA – An absence of rain and weeks of blistering temperatures prompted state officials to convene a special meeting Friday to assess what could prove to be the driest year on record in Maine.

National weather agencies already have classified Maine as experiencing either drought conditions or severe drought conditions that potentially could threaten private wells, dramatically increase the specter of widespread forest fires and force the state’s farmers to seek federal assistance.

Meeting for the first time in two years, members of the Maine Drought Task Force gathered at the Maine Emergency Management Agency’s Augusta headquarters to discuss the consequences of weeks without significant rainfall. Arthur W. Cleaves, MEMA director, said the state is “right on the edge of a very critical time” in the cycle of the ongoing dry spell.

“The water supplies in municipalities haven’t been running short although they are very low,” Cleaves said. “So things are at a caution stage, but not a critical stage. There’s no need for alarm, but we are concerned about groundwater level conditions.”

Hendricus Lulofs of the National Weather Service in Caribou told members of the panel that much of Maine is 10 inches below the level of rainfall that ordinarily would have fallen by this time of year.

“When you’re that far behind the curve, even normal rain for the rest of the year is not enough to make up for that kind of a deficit,” he said. “So we need an extended period of above-normal precipitation.”

While the northern end of the state remains very dry, eastern and southern areas are experiencing severe drought conditions. Lulofs said that, historically, 1941 was the driest year on record for Bangor, when the city received only 25.16 inches of rain. With only four months left, Bangor has recorded a little more than 14 inches of rain so far this year.

“In theory, we’re on track to challenge that all-time record low year,” Lulofs said. “That’s not to say that it’s going to happen, but certainly we’re going to be in one of the driest years barring the arrival of any tropical systems.”

In fact, the remnants of Hurricane Floyd were exactly what ended Maine’s drought cycle two years ago when the tropical system swept through the state in September. The heavy rains abruptly reversed low groundwater and stream-flow levels at a time when hydrologists warned low groundwater levels might not recover until the following spring. In Bangor, the National Weather Service recorded 9.88 inches of rain in September 1999 – the wettest month since rainfall amounts first were recorded in 1925.

But Lulofs’ current long-range forecasts do not reveal anything on the horizon beyond a couple of rainmakers that would produce and inch or so of rain here and there. A tropical system similar to the one that produced Hurricane Floyd is really what’s needed to reverse the current trend.

“Barring that, we’re really looking at a long-term problem here,” he said.

Maine’s potato, apple and blueberry growers are all planning on smaller harvests than last year, according to Maine Agriculture Commissioner Robert Spear, who stopped short of predicting disaster for many of the industries.

“I think they’re going to feel the effects,” he said. “I think they’re going to see a decrease in yield, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to kick in to any program to meet the threshold for emergency assistance.”

Thus far, the summer heat and lack of rainfall have taken the greatest toll on Maine’s dwindling number of dairy farmers and their hay harvests. This year has been particularly cruel as farmers watched an invading force of army worms devour their first seasonal hay crop. Then, high temperatures and no rain all but doomed the second hay crop.

“This is the feed that dairy farmers rely on all winter long,” Spear said. “I’m hoping we can work something out on the federal level for feed loss.”

If the summer has been brutal on the fields, it has been equally oppressive on Maine’s forests. Tom Parent of the Department of Conservation told members of the panel that current tinderbox conditions in the woods threaten to match 1995’s record year for forest fire danger.

“In fact, the timing could be worse because in 1995 the drought broke in mid-September,” he said. “If we continue through September with this lack of rain we could be in a much more serious situation than in 1995.”

To minimize the forest fire threat, the department has restricted burning and campfire permits statewide. Railroads also have increased fire patrols along the tracks and the state has beefed up staffing for aerial patrols. Despite these measures, Parent fears the worst fire dangers are still ahead for the state.

“There’s a number of critical points coming up, starting with Labor Day when a number of people will be coming into the state to recreate,” he said. “There’s a potential for fires wherever you have people. In the near term we’re going to start having the killing frost which will kill off the small vegetation which will create more fuel to burn – fine fuel that can start fires. The intermediate-level fuels and the large fuels are also dry. So if a fire starts, the potential for it to grow quickly and burn intensely is significant.”

Members of the task force plan to stay in touch informally on weather conditions before meeting again next month to reassess drought levels.