Far from causing the economic devastation some have predicted, a Maine Woods National Park would bring greater economic vitality to a region of the state that is in decline, a national expert concluded in a report to be issued today by a park advocacy group.

Because of the steady decline of the timber industry, “it is evident that northern Maine is not on a healthy economic and demographic trajectory,” economist Thomas Power concluded.

Since the counties around national parks across the country now have higher rates of growth in jobs, income and population than the national average, creating a park here could change the curve, he said in the lengthy report.

Power, chairman of the economics department at the University of Montana, did the study at the behest of RESTORE: The North Woods, the Massachusetts-based group behind efforts to create a 3.2 million acre park and preserve in northern Maine from Millinocket west to the Quebec border. It was paid for with foundation money and private donations.

Power arrived in Maine on Sunday and will speak about his report at 12:30 p.m. Tuesday at the University of Maine and at 6 p.m. at Foxcroft Academy.

If the park ever comes to pass – it is not now supported by Maine’s congressional delegation or the National Park Service – it will become the “jewel of Maine,” Power forecast in an interview Sunday.

“The Maine government will argue it is the best thing it ever did,” he said.

That’s because the park can help stem the flow of jobs and people out of north central Maine, he said.

To illustrate the impact of a national park, Power compares the economic situation of Piscataquis County, 68 percent of which would be covered by park under the RESTORE proposal, with that of Hancock County, home of Acadia National Park.

Thirty years ago, the average income in both counties was $13,000. In 1998, the average income in Hancock County was $24,500, about $7,000 more than the $17,500 average in Piscataquis County.

Simply put, people want to live near national parks hence companies locate there and jobs are created.

“The name tells people that you have a significant natural resource that the federal government has committed to protecting … That matters to people,” Power said.

He calculates that between 1 million and 3 million people would visit a Maine Woods National Park each year. Acadia averages about 3 million visits a year. However, two-thirds of Maine’s tourists currently spend their time on the coast. Only 10 percent visit the Katahdin and Moosehead Lake region and 7 percent go to the Kennebec and Moose River region, according to the Maine Office of Tourism.

Power, however, argues that more people will be drawn to these regions once a park that encompasses them is created. First, creating a park will increase public awareness of the area, he said. Then, the building of paved, safe roads and recreational amenities, such as places to stay, will make the region more inviting to visitors.

He said many visitors are drawn to areas much more remote than northern Maine, such as near national parks in Montana and Alaska.

If the vast numbers of visitors do come, 100 jobs will be created annually in the region during the early years of the park. That number will steadily increase to about 300 jobs per year 20 years later, Power concluded.

The jobs will be in a variety of sectors, not just the tourism industry, which would account for about one-quarter of the new employment opportunities, the professor said.

He acknowledges that 1,500 timber-related jobs could be lost if a park is created, but said the park would create another 1,500 jobs and the influx of people to the region would generate up to another 3,600 jobs.

John Simko, a founder of the Maine Woods Coalition, a group that opposes the park and seeks to maintain the North Woods as they are, said he found Power’s conclusions “amazing.”

If all the trees within the proposed park boundary are off-limits, mills in Greenville, Guilford and Dover-Foxcroft would go out of business, putting 1,000 people out of work, he said.

The creation of 100 to 300 jobs a year pales in comparison to the losses, said Simko, who is the town manager of Greenville.

“I don’t see how that math works,” he said.

As for comparisons with Hancock County, he said that locale is on the coast and closer to the East Coast’s population centers. Plus, he said, the state’s tourism efforts until very recently focused almost exclusively on the coast.

Simko said the region is trying to diversify its job base as the number of timber jobs diminishes, but it does not want to rely solely on tourism industry jobs that tend to be seasonal and don’t pay well.

“We’re not a wasteland. We’re not waiting for all the trees to be cut down and then figure out what to do,” he said. “We’re a civilization.”

Mary Adams, an outspoken critic of the park and a private property rights advocate, attacked Power’s sympathy for national park advocates.

“He could be on the RESTORE board for his philosophy,” she said.

“They haven’t found anybody objective. He’s a pitchman,” she added.

Jym St. Pierre, RESTORE’s Maine director, said his group chose Power because he is a national expert and because they couldn’t find anyone in Maine who didn’t have a political interest in the issue.