Terrorism expert: Attack may not be last

AUGUSTA – The man who led the Defense Department’s planning effort to deal with terrorism until earlier this year is warning fellow Mainers that this week’s attacks may not be the last, or the worst this nation will face. Washington attorney Charles Cragin was assistant secretary of defense under William Cohen, and he chaired a panel that warned of potential terrorist attacks on the United States in a 1999 report to Congress.

“America has gone blithely down this path of an almost Pollyanna attitude that nothing will happen here,” he said. “It is tragic that we have to wait for something truly horrendous to happen to get the wake-up call. There are people out there that hate the United States and everything it stands for and will do their best to harm us.”

Cragin, who practiced law in Maine for several years and was the 1982 GOP candidate for governor, led the effort to plan how to handle terrorist attacks against the United States mandated by a 1996 law. That law was passed in the aftermath of the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center.

“I remember going to a FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency] meeting early on and being told they didn’t want to do one of the scenarios we proposed,” he said. “They thought simultaneous attacks in different parts of the country were unrealistic and too difficult to do.”

Cragin said the report to Congress made it clear that a truly dedicated group of fanatics can achieve some level of success in attacking a free society such as the United States. The goal of the study was to plan on how to handle the aftermath of a successful attack.

“We looked at all sorts of scenarios,” he said, “from airplane hijackings to chemical, biological and radiological weapons being used on Americans.”

He said the computer models of some of those scenarios predict an even more horrific loss of life than the reality of the Pentagon and trade center attacks. For example, one training exercise involved a terrorist attack on the Portsmouth area with biological weapons.

“As terrible as the reality of what we saw is,” he said, “an attack with a biological weapon, like anthrax, could be even more deadly.”

Cragin said his study concluded there is no way with “100 percent certitude” to protect the United States from well-planned and executed terrorists attacks. But, he said, there are steps that could reduce the likelihood of success. For example, bolstering security at airports to a much higher standard would help.

“Let’s be honest about what we have now,” he said. “The x-ray machine, the perfunctory questions that everyone can answer by rote. How well-trained is the security? I think you will find not as well as they should be.”

Cragin said there have been both government studies and news media reports about lax security at the nation’s airports with hidden cameras showing how easily someone could get on an airplane at some airports. He said security guards often are poorly paid and not well-trained.

“You get what you pay for,” he said.

Cragin said the United States needs to bolster security efforts aimed at terrorist activities, but he said those efforts must be balanced by the Constitution. He said to take away individual freedoms to protect those very freedoms would be giving the terrorists part of what they seek.

He said there are procedures in place in some nations that strike a balance between security and unfettered freedom. He said he was impressed with the security on El Al, the national airline of Israel and at airports in that nation.

“El Al, for years, has had substantial security precautions in respect to their airplanes,” he said. “There is a mindset that says check everybody, every time.”

He predicted that U.S. airports would be the first part of the public transportation system to see increased security. He said cell phones would be checked every time. Bags will be searched more frequently and thoroughly and security personnel will be more willing to ask questions when their suspicions are aroused.

“The freedoms that we knew in America probably became inalterably changed on September 11,” Cragin said.

He said he still considers Maine his home and has a house in the state, registers his car here and still has a Maine driver’s license. And he says any changes in airport security will certainly affect him because he flies home whenever he can.