14-month drought expected to continue

AUGUSTA – A single well in one Maine town dries up. Then another. Then 12. Then the entire community is without water.

That’s the nightmare scenario for Arthur W. Cleaves, director of the Maine Emergency Management Agency. Meeting with members of the state drought task force Wednesday, Cleaves learned that Maine’s 14-month-long drought shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. And while it’s not time to take action just yet, Cleaves and others urged state residents to start thinking about what they’ll do if the well runs dry.

“People should be concerned enough to the point that they’re watching this very closely, anticipating what they would do if they had to go to conservation measures,” he said. “It’s troubling because it sneaks up on us a little bit at a time.”

If the severe drought situation persists, however, some wells could start drying up this winter in certain areas and the state could be in a critical position next spring.

Learning to cope without a reliable source of water may not be necessary, but as the state winds up what could be one of the top 10 driest years on record, Hendricus Lulofs, of the National Weather Service in Caribou, reasons it can’t hurt to be prepared.

“It’s a planning thing at this point,” Lulofs said. “If you have a plan, you can execute it if you need to. That way, you’ll be a lot better off than if you were to just ignore the problem.”

Despite 2 inches of rain that fell across the state Tuesday night and above-normal rainfall for September, Maine continues to chart a precipitation deficit of between 8 and 10 inches depending on the particular area of the state. The recent rain had the immediate effect of dramatically lowering the short-term danger of fire in the Maine woods. But that thin layer of comfort could evaporate over the span of several dry and windy days.

Current year-to-date measurements taken by the National Weather Service indicate that the Acadia National Park region is more than 18.5 inches below its annual rainfall. Other precipitation deficits include Patten, 14.81 inches; Machias, 11.43; Guilford, 10.96; Bangor, 10.45; Ellsworth, 9; and Presque Isle, 8.34.

“The groundwater levels are what’s really troubling me,” Cleaves said. “We’re trying to get out an early warning to people so that they’re aware that the ground levels and river flows are down significantly and, frankly, almost at record lows now. Once the ground freezes, it doesn’t absorb the water. Then we’re dependent on spring melting at that point.”

Lulofs said Maine could recover from its current drought if the state were hit by the remnants of a fall hurricane or tropical weather maker. November, statistically, tends to be a wet month in the state and a steady rainfall would aid in replenishing groundwater levels. But even under normal rainfall conditions for the rest of the year, Lulofs said it would take another 8 inches of precipitation over a week to restore groundwater levels. He saw no drought relief in sight for the immediate future.

“It’s tough to tell what the real long range is going to be,” he said. “The best computer guidance is showing us that this winter we’re looking at near normal precipitation across Maine, and again that’s not going to make a difference in breaking the large deficit we have. We need a prolonged wet period.”

In the absence of a rainy spell, the best Mainers can hope for is a deep snowpack and normal or above-normal precipitation in the spring.

“That could all be released in a hurry and it could make a difference [next spring], but there’s no way of telling at this point if it will happen,” Lulofs said.

Members of the State Drought Task Force are scheduled to meet again to reassess the drought danger during the second week of November.