The energy front

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the White House, Congress and every federal agency with even the most remote connection to the issue have been furiously addressing all aspects of national security. All aspects, that is, except the one in which this nation is the least secure – energy.

It does not take a foreign policy expert to see that the true goal of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida, the Taliban and any other nations that may be behind the attacks is not to make Americans quake in fear. If there is one lesson of history that is irrefutable, it is that Americans do not respond to attack with fear, but with courage and resolve.

The true goal is to bring America to its knees through a major disruption in oil supply. Draw the United States into war with an Islamic state – poor, dysfunctional Afghanistan being an especially easy patsy – and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East soon will be embroiled in revolution and jihad. Whether the supply shutdown is caused by sabotage or political change, the result will be the same – economic calamity and a humbled America.

The basics of this strategy are hardly new. From the time of the first Arab oil embargo during the Arab-Israeli war more than 28 years ago, it has been clear that anti-American elements in the Middle East have recognized America’s greatest vulnerability. Cutoffs followed the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the latter leading to a war, the Gulf War, fought over access to oil.

Though there have been price spikes, temporary shortages and some anxious moments, the need of Middle East nations to sell their oil as much as we need to buy it has resulted in relative stability. That will change dramatically, of course, should Middle Eastern nations fall to forces with no interest in building strong and prosperous societies.

Despite this clear threat, Washington proceeds as though energy policy is a matter of partisan politics rather than one of survival. The Energy Bill, passed by the House before the attacks, now is stalled in the Senate until the end of the year – Republicans want a bill that focuses solely upon oil production (from tax credits for drillers and refiners, to the highly controversial opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge), the Democratic majority is holding out for a more comprehensive bill that includes increasing efficiency standards for automobiles and appliances.

Both positions are valid, yet both suffer from the same deficiency – neither increased oil production nor increased efficiency standards will bear fruit for several years. The danger, unfortunately, is immediate.

Another approach to a secure energy supply surfaced in the House this week. A resolution to grow the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from its current 545 million barrels to its maximum capacity of 700 million, and then to grow to capacity to 1 billion, passed by a nearly unanimous vote. President Bush is wary of this plan, rightly concerned that such massive government buying of oil would drive today’s moderate prices up and further harm the economy.

The United States, then, seems caught between the rock of shaky politics in the Middle East and the hard place of its own shaky economy. There is one way out and it’s through the home front.

President Bush – or perhaps better still, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, one of the more silent members of the Cabinet during this difficult time – should immediately and persistently call upon Americans to conserve energy. The call should be for voluntary conservation – car-pooling, consolidating trips, turning unneeded lights and appliances off, adjusting the thermostat – not for the sake of the environment or to ease some kind of energy-consumption guilt, but for national security.

Through the combined, small efforts of some 280 million Americans, the supply in the strategic reserve could be increased without increased demand throwing the economy out of whack. Long-term initiatives, such as boosting domestic production and efficiency standards, could be enacted thoughfully and without unrealistic expectations. Best of all, the message could be sent to bin Laden, et al., that their true goal is out of reach.