Soldier and statesman

Secretary of State Colin Powell began his trip to South Asia with two objectives – to strengthen the support of key nations in the war against terrorism and to plan for the post-Taliban future of Afghanistan. Mr. Powell’s greatest accomplishment on this trip, however, will be to keep two vital allies, India and Pakistan, from going to war with each other.

The United States’ relationships with those two bitter enemies have undergone a startling transformation since Sept. 11. Before the attacks, the Bush administration seemed ready to continue the clear tilt toward India. In August, the U.S. eliminated all economic sanctions imposed against India after its nuclear-weapons tests in 1999; the nuclear-testing sanctions against Pakistan were lifted, but sanctions already in place against its military coup, it unpaid debt and its alleged support for terrorist organizations remained in effect.

After the attacks, Pakistan was the first Islamic nation to offer the U.S.-led coalition support, in ways both concrete and courageous, and President Pervez Musharraf, the leader of that coup, is our most cherished ally. Today, the United States appears ready to remove most, if not all, further sanctions against Pakistan and the Bush administration has indicated willingness to provide debt relief for Pakistan’s $38 billion in outstanding international loans.

That debt relief is crucial to the future of Mr. Musharraf’s government and to Pakistan itself. More than half of all government spending there goes to interest payments on that debt, leaving little for the impoverished nation’s crushing needs, such as safe drinking water, health care, transportation and education. Although this boost to Pakistan’s economy now exists only on paper, the potential for improvement already is credited with lessening pro-Taliban demonstrations in the cities; given time to bring about some real improvement, experts say, and the change in public sentiment will spread to rural areas, where support for the Taliban, and bin Laden, remains strong.

All this rapprochement has India worried that Pakistan’s new importance to the United States can only come at its expense. India and Pakistan have fought two wars over the disputed territory of Kashmir. India has long believed that the 12-year insurgency by Kashmiri militants is funded and otherwise abetted by the government of Pakistan. Now many in India’s government openly assert that Pakistan is cooperating with the U.S. in return for U.S. support of its claim to Kashmir. The nuclear capabilities of the two foes has long been cause for alarm; reports that India resumed shelling of Kashmiri forces this week is a troubling sign that the war on terrorism may not be New Delhi’s top priority.

The challenge to the United States is to convince New Delhi otherwise as it holds Pakistan firm. Tensions must be lowered, suspicions and accusations tabled and, above all, a shooting war must be avoided. If Secretary Powell can persuade the combatants to put their war on hold until the war against Osama bin Laden and his Taliban hosts is concluded (and then, perhaps, to resolve their differences without war), one of the current age’s most celebrated generals will prove himself to be one of its most able statesman as well.