For now, the U.S. State Department is every bit as enthralled with Pakistan as it was when the United States first needed its cooperation in Afghanistan. But as members – perhaps hundreds of members, including leaders and perhaps even the top leader – of al-Qaida and the Taliban pass from Tora Bora over the Pakistan border and into decidedly pro-Taliban enclaves, the U.S.-led anti-terrorism coalition has a difficult problem. It must demand the capture of the escaped terrorists without exposing weaknesses in the Musharraf government.
The key will be the willingness of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Institute, ISI, to cooperate with the capture. Early signs are that Pakistan intends to be helpful. In October, President Musharraf took the calculated risk of firing the pro-Taliban ISI chief Gen. Mahmood Ahmed and moved two other pro-Taliban ISI leaders out of the way, moves that gave the United States some comfort in knowing that Pakistan was sincere about fighting local terrorism, although it did not answer doubts about the allegiances in ISI’s officer corps.
Now that will be tested, as both Pakistani military and intelligence will be needed to search Pashtun tribes for the Taliban and al-Qaida fighters. The need to be hopeful and the doubts about doing so were neatly captured by a State Department official this week when the official said, “Pakistan has
a very effective military when they put their mind to it.”
Keeping their minds focused on the problem should be easy. Not only is the United States an eager adviser on the issue but Pakistan’s very large neighbor, India – attacked by Pakistani terrorist groups just last week – has a powerful interest in seeing the terrorism stopped in Pakistan. It is justifiably enraged over the attack on its parliament. Mr. Musharraf has no reason to make a distinction between the terrorists crossing over from Afghanistan and those attacking in New Dehli over Kashmir; his problem is in addressing the problem while acknowledging fond feelings in Pakistan for the Taliban and its claim on Kashmir.
While prodding the Pakistani president to arrest more terrorists, the United States must be cautious not to set deadlines he would be likely unable to meet or give into the temptation to help out on the ground with the arrests. Either would weaken
Mr. Musharraf’s position and ultimately make his job of keeping power while cooperating with the United States that much more difficult.
Secretary of State Colin Powell seems to recognize this now but the test will come in the next month or so if Pakistan does not make progress. Patience and quiet diplomacy will be essential U.S. assets then.
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