Energy treadmill

The Dec. 28 BDN editorial called for greater energy efficiency and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; the cartoon called for the end of foreign oil dependence and the Burton Hatlen op-ed piece called for an end to our dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

How real are these views of the future?

The Energy Information Administration (a policy neutral arm of the U.S. Department of Energy) just published its “Annual Energy Outlook.” The projections are based on “… business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends and current laws and regulations.” Here are some highlights on U.S. energy projections to the year 2020:

Energy demand will increase 32 percent Total energy consumption is expected to increase more rapidly than domestic energy production. Even with the projected production from the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve starting in 2010, our total petroleum production will decrease.

Imports of petroleum now at 53 percent of total consumption will increase to 62 percent. World oil demand will increase to 118.9 million barrels per day from the present 76 million barrels per day.

OPEC production is expected to double reaching 57.5 million barrels per day.

Thomas Savery, in 1698, developed an engine to pump water out of English coal mines. That put us on a treadmill of ever-increasing energy use and we don’t know how to get off.

Richard C. Hill

Old Town