Since college football season is over, and seeing as how ice fishing season isn’t yet upon us (unless we choose to equip ourselves with water wings and a scuba suit), it seems like a fine time to talk madness.

March madness, that is.

I’m not saying that I’ve had any idle time lately (honest, boss … I’ve been working like a chubby little beaver) but I have spent a bit of time thinking.

And I think that, come March, coach John Giannini’s UMaine men’s basketball team will make its first NCAA tournament appearance. How sure am I? Positively, 100 percent sure. Sure enough to bet you a case of red hot dogs on it.

But just in case I’m wrong, I’ll save you the ink (and thereby owe myself a case of hot dogs no matter how things turn out) by telling you why I’m equally sure that come March, the Bears will be heading into hibernation.

Here are the reasons – Win: The NCAA desperately needs to find a team to feed to Duke in the first round of the tourney. Have you looked at the America East standings lately? The winner of this league may well end up in a bag of Purina Duke Chow before it’s all said and done. Why Maine? Why not Maine?

Lose: Duke is a preppy, snobby place. I doubt their players like Bear meat.

Win: Maine’s got a player named Justin Rowe. He’s tall. Very tall. Seven feet tall. In America East, tall players change games. Teams that have players like him win titles.

Lose: All it takes is one 5-foot-6 ref with a vivid memory of all the shots the big fellas used to throw back at him when he was a 4-foot-11 high school senior, and Rowe could end up guarding the water bucket.

Win: Giannini coached a team that lost to Husson. And he stayed. He coached teams that beat Marquette, and Providence, and Northwestern, and stayed. He has had other opportunities. And he stayed. He deserves something other than the prime bass fishing he enjoys so much as a reward.

Loss: With the exception of finally pulling Moby Bass out of Pushaw Pond, there’s only one other thing his UMaine experience lacks: An NCAA bid. He hasn’t caught the bass yet, so he probably needs a bit more time in Orono to fish.

Win: Errick Greene is a walking mismatch. Guard him with a squirt, and he’ll beat him up down low. Guard him with a goon, and he’ll speed on by.

Lose: Errick Greene. He’s had to work so hard already this season, he may be ready for a nap come March.

Win: Joe Campbell has provided one of the past year’s best continuing stories, and I want to see if he’s got another buzzer-beater left in him.

Lose: How many miracles can one guy have tucked up his long, skinny sleeve?

Win: Vermont has emerged as one of the teams to beat in the league, and coach Tom Brennan can’t win in Delaware. He’s 1-6 over the past six seasons in America East tourney games there.

Lose: The tournament’s not being held in Delaware this year? Delaware isn’t even in the league? Why didn’t anybody tell me?

Win: Delaware isn’t in the league any more. Neither is Hofstra. Or Drexel. Or Towson. OK. Forget the Towson part.

Lose: Boston University still is. And the Terriers are good. They’ve even got a winning record. Barely.

Win: BU lost its top player, Matt Turner, for the season. He’s hurt.

Lose: BU coach Dennis Wolff and Turner have feuded off and on since the explosive guard arrived on Commonwealth Avenue.

Win: Cindy Blodgett got to go to the NCAA tourney four times. Title IX is fine, but it’s just not fair that the men haven’t earned a trip.

Lose: Cindy doesn’t have any eligibility left.

John Holyoke is a NEWS sportswriter. His e-mail address is jholyoke@bangordailynews.net