WELCOME TO MAINE

In the opening section of his State of the State address, Gov. King ticked off several positive trends for Maine and its economy – increasing household income, easing of the tax burden, lowering of electricity costs. Though the gains are modest – in a few instances somewhat more modest than the governor’s speech suggested – they are gains and certainly worth mention.

Perhaps the best of the batch was his statement that Maine, “during the first year of the new century,” grew by 9,000 people. It is “especially encouraging,” the governor said, “in view of the fact that New England as a whole saw net out-migration. And over the last year Maine was in the top half of the fastest growing states in the country.”

Encouraging, just not especially accurate. The Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program (PEP) produces July 1 estimates each year for the years between the decennial counts; in this case, the estimate is for the 15-month period between the conclusion of Census 2000 on April 1 of that year until July 1, 2001.

The data used include such things as recorded births and deaths, federal tax returns. Medicare enrollment and immigration. PEP methodology is highly refined and the results are important, as they are used for year-to-year federal funding allocations.

Maine gained 11,747 people during this estimating period, an entire small town better than the governor’s assertion. And the 0.9 percent increase did indeed put it in the top half of states – tied with Tennessee for 22nd place. It’s a far cry from the six-figure gains seen in the South and West: Nevada led with 107,817, up 5.4 percent; Idaho, starting with a population close to Maine’s, added more than twice as many people for a 2.1 percent increase. Neighboring New Hampshire was eighth in percentage growth, 1.9, adding 23,395 more people. Still, Maine grew and that’s better than Louisiana, Iowa, West Virginia and North Dakota, the only four states to lose population.

Those 11,747 newcomers, along with those who already lived in a state noted for its arithmetic proficiency, may have spotted the discrepancy. If only four states lost population and none of those states are in New England, how did New England as a whole see net out-migration?

The answer is that New England saw no such thing. In addition to the gains in New Hampshire and Maine, Rhode Island was up 10,601 (a percent increase a shade above Maine’s), Vermont 4,263, Connecticut 19,509 and Massachusetts 30,207.

The region, then, is about 100,000 people in the black. That does not detract from the progress in Maine, a state that not only needs more people for its economy to grow but that also must figure out a way to get them to live where they’re most needed. Economies increasingly are regional and it’s a lot better to be a modestly growing state in a region that’s growing than it is to be a modestly growing state surrounded by decline. The population news may not be as startling as the governor said, but it is better news.