The annual Measures of Growth study of Maine, being released today, is especially important his year because it marks the end of an economic cycle. Begun in a recession in 1993, the measures charted Maine’s progress in business, the environment and community through rapid growth and state budget surpluses, to report this year in a time of little growth and budget shortfalls. Within that period of time – from about ’95 through 2000 – was Maine’s best chance to start making improvements, and now is an excellent time for an early assessment of the state’s progress.

The Maine Development Foundation, which assembles Measures of Growth, notes that of the 40 measures previously tracked (the latest study has a total of 60), the state made progress this year on 11, lost ground on 18, held steady on five, with the rest having no new data. But the more important measures in the study are the state’s long-term progress toward benchmarks set by the Maine Economic Growth Council. This sounds like rather dry stuff, but the measures themselves reveal a lot about the state’s direction.

For instance, Gov. King in his recent State of the State address talked about Maine’s declining tax burden during the last four years, but the study finds through 1999 the tax-burden gap widening between Maine and the rest of New England and Maine coming nowhere near the pace necessary to meet its tax goal. Two other important economic measures, gross state product compared with a New England average and the cost of doing business here compared with the rest of the nation, similarly show Maine losing ground and falling short of its goals. As for Maine’s long-term economic prospects, the study put red warning flags on the number of associate’s degrees, bachelor’s degrees, graduate degrees, on lifelong learning participation and employer-sponsored training. There’s plenty of talk about how Maine values education, these are specific goals with specific performances demanded and Maine is falling short on all of them.

There is some good news among the benchmarks: more clam flats are open, more forestland has been certified as sustainable, citizen participation in community activities is tops and crime is lower than it has been in decades. These are important, but increasingly political leaders are correctly pointing out that none of them can continue without a strong economy. So, when it becomes clear that Maine is going to fall short of meeting the council’s goals for research and development, new business starts, job growth among new businesses, new products and services and manufacturing productivity, it’s time for politicians to stop talking about the odd success here and there and begin leading Maine out of the wide morass of feeble progress or clear failure that occurred when success was easiest to reach.

New revenue forecasts may pull Maine out of its immediate predicament of a painful budget shortfall, but they do not respond to the long term problems raised by Measures of Growth except to suggest that there is still opportunity for progress even in difficult times. As the study shows, Maine needs badly to seize that opportunity.