Economist forecasts changing population Maine’s elderly present challenges

PRESQUE ISLE – It’s easy to get so caught up in the day-to-day details of the state’s economy that the larger issues shaping Maine’s ability to grow and prosper are completely ignored.

That is why the State Planning Office tracks economic trends and activities big and small, Laurie Lachance, state economist, said Tuesday at a University of Maine at Presque Isle business luncheon.

“There is a tidal wave of changes coming in Maine in the economy that will touch every part of our lives,” Lachance said. “We would ignore them at our peril.”

Chief among those is the aging and projected decline of Maine’s population.

“In the 1990s, we saw six years of out-migration,” Lachance said. “At the same time, there has been a decline in the birth rate, [and] our projection is that will continue.”

A declining population translates into a tight labor market, the economist said, and one solution is to look to a quality vs. quantity scenario.

“If there is no increase in population, we need to increase the level of skills and education of the people here,” she said. “We need to focus on education attainment like never before.”

Beyond a college degree, Lachance said the state must place emphasis on employer-sponsored training and lifelong learning.

The tsunami of changes that the state faces, Lachance said, is the aging of Mainers.

There are 175,000 senior citizens – those 65-years-old and older – living in Maine, representing 14 percent of the overall population.

By 2025, that number is expected to jump to 266,000, or 21 percent of the total population.

“We have to look at what demands this population will place on housing, on transportation, on health care and school funding,” Lachance said. “How are we going to pay for essential services and infrastructure for this group?”

It is not that Mainers are simply getting older, she said. There also is an out-migration of younger people from the state.

“This represents the so-called ‘brain drain’ issue,” she said.

What population growth there is in the state is highly uneven, Lachance said, with rural areas seeing small population booms and urban centers losing population.

“This is population growth in an expensive manner,” she said. “We know this as urban sprawl, and there are many costs that come with this kind of development.”

Construction costs for schools alone in these growing areas account for three-quarters of a billion dollars annually in Maine, with another $50 million to $75 million taken from the general fund annually for items Lachance refers to as “redundant infrastructure.”

As residents move to the country, but continue to work in larger cities, Maine is becoming a commuter state.

“This takes a toll on the environment,” Lachance said. “And people are spending so much time commuting, there is little time left for volunteerism or leadership roles in their communities.”

Maine does show great promise in the manufacturing sectors with a strong labor force, but the state’s ranking as No. 2 in the nation in taxation makes it a hard sell to companies seeking expansion, Lachance said.

“There are huge factors acting on our economy,” she said. “We can choose to ignore them or we can recognize them and to try to adapt.”