Rain on the way for Eastern U.S., but not enough

WASHINGTON – Increased rainfall seems to be in store for the dry Eastern states in coming weeks, but not enough to break the grip of drought, forecasters said Thursday.

National Weather Service meteorologists anticipate only limited relief – if any – from the drought.

“The drought in some areas will worsen as we move into the warmer months, when demand for water is greatest, said Conrad Lautenbacher Jr. of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“Nearly four years of little rain and snow in some places has left many areas with deep water deficits,” he said. “Changing weather patterns may offer a glimmer of hope, but we don’t see the water levels returning to normal anytime soon.”

Similar dry conditions persist in the West, where winter snowfall has been light and predicted early spring rains may be near normal but not nearly enough to alleviate drought conditions, the forecasters said.

“The weather patterns of late fall and winter are causing the drought conditions,” said National Weather Service Director Jack Kelly. “We can point to a persistent high-pressure pattern that kept the jet stream and storm track away from the East most of that time, making matters worse in areas that were already dry. In the next few weeks we expect the jet stream to continue dipping more to the south, bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Eastern seaboard,” he said.

Several places in the Southeast have accumulated moisture deficits of more than 30 inches since 1998.

“For some areas, this is comparable to missing a full year of rain,” Kelly said. “It will take a period of above-normal, well-distributed rainfall during the next four months to eliminate most aspects of the drought in the East.”

“Water supply forecasts are also bleak for parts of the West. In some areas, snow cover is only half of the normal and forecasts indicate flows on rivers, critical to meeting water supply needs, also are expected to be half of normal,” Kelly said.

The Northeast had its second-driest and second-warmest September-February in 107 years of record keeping. During the same period, the Southeast had its seventh-driest, and the Southwest its fourth-driest.

With below-average precipitation for 22 of the last 24 months, Maine has suffered serious and extreme drought conditions longer than any other state on the East Coast, according to Art Cleaves, director of the Maine Emergency Management Agency.

Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, Arizona and Massachusetts posted their driest September to February ever.