Parties eye gains in governors’ races 36 states to elect new chief in 2002; outcomes seen as key to presidential politics

WASHINGTON – Democrats have their eye on governors’ races in almost a dozen states now held by Republicans. The GOP hopes to protect its 27-21 lead in governorships with victories in six Democratic-held states.

In some of those states – such as Hawaii and Illinois – the parties hope to end decades of domination by the opposition.

Republicans have high hopes in Hawaii, largely dominated by Democrats since it gained statehood more than four decades ago. Democrats think they have an opportunity to win Illinois, held by Republicans for the last quarter of a century.

These are two of the juiciest pick-off targets in 2002.

“Democrats do have the advantage,” said Clinton Key, executive director of the Republican Governors Association, who says he would be happy just to retain a majority. “There are more Republican seats in play.”

Thirty-six states elect governors in 2002, including 23 now held by Republicans, 11 held by Democrats and two held by independents.

Eleven Republican incumbents are up for re-election and a dozen GOP seats are open. Democrats have five incumbents up for re-election and are defending six open seats.

The national stakes aren’t as clearly defined in governors’ races as they are in the fight for the House and the Senate. But the outcome can make a difference.

“If you have the majority, you have a louder voice,” said B.J. Thornberry, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, who noted the key roles governors can play in presidential elections.

Democrats hope to pick up governors’ seats in Arizona, Illinois, Maine (now held by an independent), Michigan and New Mexico. They think they have a good chance in Kansas, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.

Republicans think their best chances for gains are in Alabama, Alaska, California, Hawaii, New Hampshire and Oregon. Both parties are closely watching Minnesota, where Gov. Jesse Ventura of the Independence Party has shown interest in running, but has not announced his plans.

In Illinois, Democrats have the strongest chance they have had in years, with Rep. Rod Blagojevich, the winner of a March 19 primary, leading a unified Democratic Party against Republican Attorney General Jim Ryan, who won a divisive primary.

Blagojevich could benefit from voter fatigue over scandals in the current Republican administration of Gov. George Ryan, no relation to the nominee, the Democrat’s spokesman Doug Scofield said. He noted the congressman also did well among downstate Illinois voters in the primary, which could bode well for the general election.

This week Jim Ryan was in Washington, where he announced that President Bush would be visiting Illinois May 13 to help his campaign. Ryan said he would bring the state party together because he “is a uniter, not a divider” – a line borrowed from the president.

The GOP’s strongest chance for a pickup may be in Alaska, where Sen. Frank Murkowski is focused on strengthening the economy as he runs for an open governor’s seat now held by a Democrat.

But three of the last five Alaska governors have been Democrats and a former Republican governor from the 1970s, Jay Hammond, is co-chairing Democratic Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer’s campaign, said spokeswoman Deborah Bonito.

The most dramatic Republican opportunity is in Hawaii, where former Maui mayor and former state GOP chairwoman Linda Lingle is likely to face one of several Democratic candidates after a Sept. 21 primary. Democrats have dominated Hawaii’s politics for four decades, though the GOP has gradually gained ground.

Lingle almost beat Democratic incumbent Gov. Benjamin Cayetano four years ago. The GOP’s chances have improved over the years because of increased migration of retirees and others from the U.S. mainland, charges of financial wrongdoing against some prominent Democrats and a highly competitive, moderate Republican candidate, said independent political analyst Dan Boylan.

“It’s likely to be a close race,” said House Majority Whip Brian Schatz, a Democrat. “But keep in mind that Hawaii continues to lean toward Democratic values and Democratic politicians.”