Coalition forms to rally for bonds UM spokesman to run campaign

AUGUSTA – A broad coalition has been formed to support passage of the two bond issues on the June 11 ballot, but veteran political observers say supporters have a daunting task with little time before the election and little interest by voters.

“We have got less than five weeks to go and that is not much time to get our message out,” said John Diamond, who has taken an unpaid leave of absence from his job as spokesman for the University of Maine to run the campaign.

“But, we have a broad group supporting these two bonds and I think we can raise the money we need to get our message to the voters,” he said.

The Legislature put the two bonds on the June ballot because portions of both are designed to help spur the economy sooner, rather than after a November election.

The first ballot question asks voters to approve borrowing $28.5 million to fund the state’s revolving loan school renovation fund, install sprinkler systems at dormitories located at publicly owned schools, renovate a state office building in Augusta, and provide a homeless center for teens in Portland.

The second bond question, for nearly $35 million, provides funds for a dozen different programs, ranging from $8 million for two loan programs at the Finance Authority of Maine to $30,000 to help renovate the tour boat Katahdin at the Moosehead Marine Museum.

Diamond, who served as House majority leader in the 1980s, acknowledged the coalition, which will formally kick off its campaign next week, faces a tough task. He said fewer voters are expected to go to the polls on June 11, and those who do are likely to be more reluctant to vote for borrowing proposals.

“We know it will be tough, but we think we can get the message that these bonds are important investments in the future of Maine across to the voters in the primary elections,” he said.

At least two political analysts believe both bond issues are in jeopardy.

“They [the coalition] could lose both of them,” said Bowdoin College government professor Chris Potholm, who owns his own polling company. “They have got everything lumped together, I mean fire sprinklers and homeless kids in the same bond? They may see a backlash from voters who see something they can vote against in that Christmas tree list of things.”

Potholm said there will be far fewer voters at the polls in June and those who are likely to vote may be inclined to vote against borrowing for a number of reasons. There are only three major primary election contests, with multiple candidates in both Republican and Democratic primaries for the 2nd Congressional District and with a Republican race for governor.

Diamond is concerned and said the campaign message will be tailored differently than it would for a fall general election. He said the group is trying to raise $200,000 for the campaign that will include television, radio and print ads aimed at likely voters.

“We know we have a tough campaign ahead, but we think we have an important message that these bonds are investing in Maine’s future and now is a good time to do that,” he said.

A review of official vote tabulations as well as exit poll data from previous elections indicates supporters of the bond measures have reason to worry. The last bond question on the ballot in a primary election was in June of 1996, with U.S. Senate primary contests in both major parties. The $4.9 million bond for a statewide library information system passed with just 52 percent of the 188,560 votes cast.

And while exit polling of 905 voters in the 1999 November referendum showed broad support for all the bonds, it also indicated Republicans were less supportive. For example, a $26.4 million bond for the state’s Technical College System was supported by 69 percent of the nearly 409,000 Mainers who cast votes. But, of the 31 percent of the voters who opposed the measure, 56 percent said they were Republicans.

“Few independents will bother to go vote on the bonds and it will mostly be Republican get-out-the-vote efforts,” said Colby College government professor Sandy Maisel, a Democrat who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 1976. “I am one of those people very concerned about politics, you might say a political junkie, but I probably won’t vote because I live in the 1st [Congressional] District.”

Potholm agreed the turnout likely will be low, certainly well below the more than 650,000 voters expected to cast ballots next November. And with more Republican contests on the ballot, that likely means more conservative voters will be at the polls who will be “a harder sell” for bond supporters.

“And this budget mess could be the end of them,” he said. “Right now that’s all sort of a background buzz, but if that becomes front burner, then the bonds could become a referendum on the handling of the economy. That would kill those bonds.”

What some analysts see as a weakness – the many disparate issues lumped together in the two ballot questions – may be a strength in a low voter turnout election, Diamond claimed. He said all of the many groups with an interest in the bonds will be asked to push passage with their supporters and workers.

“These bonds will benefit projects across the state,” Diamond said. “If we can mobilize all of those that are affected, that could be a lot of votes.”