GOP candidate left off poll may get lobster dinner

AUGUSTA – One of Maine’s leading pollsters conceded Wednesday that he should have included the name of Republican gubernatorial candidate Jim Libby in a poll that was released Tuesday.

Patrick Murphy, president of Strategic Marketing Services of Portland, said the name of the former state senator from Buxton was not included as an option for his poll’s respondents because those questioned in a test survey did not seem to be overly aware of Libby’s candidacy.

Murphy also said putting Libby’s name on the list would have added time and expense to the cost of completing the poll on who would likely win the November election for governor. The veteran pollster said the decision was ultimately made to do only a “one-horse race” and it was felt that Libby’s primary opponent, Peter Cianchette of South Portland, was the more likely of the two to emerge as the victor and move on to the election in November.

Libby said Murphy’s decision to exclude him reflected the pollster’s own bias and that he was disappointed at being left out of the survey. Libby was the first gubernatorial hopeful to qualify as a publicly funded candidate under Maine’s Clean Elections Act by gathering 2,500 signatures and accompanying $5 checks.

“If somebody wants to influence a poll, then they shouldn’t be in the polling business,” Libby said Wednesday.

Murphy, a registered Democrat, insisted the decision to exclude Libby was driven entirely by economy rather than political ideology.

If he were to do it again, “I’d include a question on Libby,” the pollster said. “But if I’m proven wrong [on the June 11 primary], I’ll buy him a lobster dinner.”

The SMS poll was conducted between May 10 and May 14 and questioned 400 adults in a random telephone survey. The poll included only those respondents who identified themselves as likely voters and who and had voted in the most recent presidential election. The poll carried a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

According to the SMS results, 48 percent of those sampled said they were voting or leaning toward voting for Democratic candidate and 2nd District U.S. Rep. John Baldacci of Bangor. Cianchette came in at a distant second, at 11.5 percent, followed by David Flanagan, a Manchester independent, with 7 percent, Green Independent Party candidate Jonathan Carter of Lexington Township with 4.1 percent, and Lewiston independent John Jenkins, with 4 percent.

The SMS poll is the second survey in as many weeks to be criticized by candidates for failing to include all the names of those who might appear on the ballot. Chris Potholm, a registered Republican who runs the Potholm Group polling firm in Brunswick, said it was clear Maine residents were looking at public surveys with new scrutiny and that pollsters should take notice.

“I think [people] should take a holiday on these polls until they can afford to do a more complete one,” Potholm said.