Let the governor’s race begin Cianchette win sets stage in 5-way contest

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AUGUSTA – James Libby may have had the money, but he lacked the right message and strategy to deliver a home run Tuesday for Republicans who chose Peter Cianchette as the party’s gubernatorial candidate by a 2-1 margin.

That was the opinion of several pollsters and GOP election watchers Wed-nesday who predicted the field of five candidates vying for the Blaine House will offer Mainers one of the most exciting governor’s races they’ve seen in years.

The five candidates for governor appearing on the Nov 5 ballot are: Democratic 2nd District Rep. John Baldacci of Bangor; Cianchette, a Republican South Portland business consultant and former legislator; Jonathan Carter, the Green Independent Party candidate from Lexington Township and forest conservation activist; David Flanagan, a Manchester independent and former president of the Central Maine Power Co.; and independent state Rep. John Michael of Auburn.

“All bets are off now,” said MaryEllen FitzGerald, a political independent who runs Critical Insights, a polling firm based in Portland. “This is going to be a really, really interesting race. John Baldacci’s team ought to be out there really refining the message and looking to see who he really wants to have visible on his team and who he doesn’t. Because I think there’s some baggage in that group.”

Only Cianchette faced a primary challenge Tuesday. In unofficial returns compiled by the Bangor Daily News, with all but one of 659 precincts reporting, Cianchette rocketed past Libby, 52,054 to 25,936. Although balloting by all parties and independents Tuesday reflected a statewide average voter turnout of 20 percent, about 27.5 percent of all registered Republicans in the state participated in the gubernatorial primary that was won by Cianchette with 66.8 percent of the vote. The result fell right in the middle of pollsters’ predictions for the GOP turnout which was pegged at between 25 percent and 30 percent.

Chris Potholm, a political science professor at Bowdoin College who also runs the Potholm Group polling firm, said about 15 percent of the GOP voters who earlier considered themselves to be undecided opted in large numbers over the last few days to vote for the 40-year-old Republican. Potholm, a Republican whose son works on the Cianchette campaign, said the winner’s decision to send out numerous mailings and voice mail messages during the last three days of the campaign were also influencing factors for undecided Republicans.

“I received one of those and it sounded like it was done on a car phone, as if he was in between campaign stops,” said Potholm. “I also found a sticky note on my newspaper from Cianchette thanking me for my support. It looked hand-written, as if someone just placed it on my newspaper. So those were good techniques that helped make the whole thing gel together.”

Libby, a 41-year-old high school teacher, became the first gubernatorial candidate in Maine to qualify for public campaign funding under Maine’s Clean Elections Act. He received about $328,000 to carry him through the primary and spent the bulk of it on political advertising. Knowing Cianchette had locked up the support of Republicans in many urban areas months ago, Libby plotted a strategy to reach out to GOP voters in rural areas of the state.

He spent nearly $30,000 in Aroostook County, hoping that television ads and radio spots on some Christian-themed stations would resonate with voters there. Hamstrung by not receiving his money until March and by having to teach daily at Sanford High School, Libby used advertising as a means to project his message promoting expanded access to health care and educational opportunities.

A Republican who characterized himself as more conservative than Cianchette, Libby is opposed to gay rights legislation that is favored by his former rival. Nearly 75 percent of the voters in Aroostook County cast ballots against the state’s gay rights law in 1998, a dramatically larger percentage than the statewide average of 51 percent that repealed the legislation. But the strategy of reaching out to rural voters in northern and eastern Maine on an issue he perceived as regionally important never paid off for Libby.

“A: The Christian Right is a paper tiger,” surmised Potholm in analyzing the strategy. “B: In Maine, beating up on gay rights is never going to get you elected.”

Craig Green, the GOP chairman in Aroostook County, said many rural Republicans were familiar with the Cianchette name and had family members retired from or working for the old Cianchette Brothers Construction Co., now known as Cianbro of Pittsfield. The Presque Isle insurance agent agreed with Potholm’s assessment of Libby’s heavy play of the gay rights card. Additionally, he said Cianchette was better organized and made more trips to Aroostook County than Libby.

On Wednesday, with all precincts in Aroostook County reported, Republicans there gave Cianchette 1,888 votes and Libby, 1,022. Cianchette won 43 of the county’s 72 communities and Libby won 29.

Funding sources also were a factor in the campaign. By taking the publicly funded route, Libby could promise he would not have to ingratiate himself to special interest contributors. Potholm said that kind of approach might be appealing in a general election, but that in a primary, it’s important to know where your support is coming from.

For his part, Cianchette was perceived as running a calculated campaign that built its momentum slowly and peaked at the right time with the right message. Cianchette kept it simple, hammering away on the state’s economy and the need for more jobs and making the state more friendly to business interests both in and out of state. Potholm and FitzGerald said it was the message Republicans wanted to hear and they responded with their votes.

Five seconds into his victory speech Tuesday night, Cianchette fired a shot across the bow of the Baldacci campaign warning the Democrat that his “coronation” as governor had been canceled and that “the race begins today.” For many Republicans, FitzGerald said, those words crystallized the single reason why they voted for Cianchette in the first place: they believe he is the GOP candidate who can defeat Baldacci.

“I loved that,” said Potholm. “It is going to be a two-person race. It was also a message to the Portland Press Herald, which doesn’t seem to think there is a gubernatorial race. So he was telling them that Baldacci won’t have a cakewalk to the Blaine House.”

Baldacci, who was in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, made campaign rounds Tuesday in the 1st and 2nd District, even though he had no opponent. It was a brilliant move, according to Potholm, emphasizing that it attracted some free television time for the Democrat and reinforced the message that he was running as if he were a primary candidate who had also won something Tuesday.

Donna Gormley, Baldacci’s communications director, said that was exactly what the candidate had hoped to convey. She added that, as far as she knew, Cianchette was “the only person” who perceived Baldacci’s campaign drive as a “coronation.”

“We work hard in this campaign,” she said. “That’s why we had a primary night rally. That’s why we’re working every single day. This race is not over. It’s going to be long. It’s going to be hard and we’re campaigning aggressively and actively. We take nothing for granted.”

Patrick Murphy, a Democrat who runs the Strategic Marketing Services polling firm in Portland, agreed with Gormley’s characterization of Cianchette’s “coronation” remark as a singular point of view.

“It’s probably good campaign gimmickry … and I don’t say that in a negative way,” he said. “Does it get the attention of the vast majority of Mainers who are going to vote in November? Probably not. Not at this time. He’s got a hell of a race ahead of him.”

FitzGerald said the strong personalities in the gubernatorial race coupled with significant funding potential almost assures Mainers can look forward to a spirited campaign. Cianchette raised more than $435,000 during the primary. Baldacci spent nearly $700,000 through May 30. Dwayne Bickford, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, and Christy Setzer, communications director for the Maine Democratic Party, both agreed Wednesday there is national interest at the party level over who will reside in the governor’s mansion. It was reasonable to assume, they said, that some national party money will find its way into both races.

John Michael said he is still analyzing his campaign funding options, but that regardless of what he can raise, he is determined to stay in the race through Nov. 5. As the only pro-life, anti-gay rights candidate in the race, Michael says he plans to draw off some support from Cianchette among conservative voters while denying Baldacci a portion of the Democratic vote in the Lewiston-Auburn area as the hometown candidate.

“I’m fairly well-known around the state,” Michael said Wednesday. “I think I’ll take from all sides and certainly from Lewiston-Auburn. I like Jim Libby and if he had won, I probably would have dropped out because my politics are similar to his.”

Jonathan Carter, who is running a publicly funded campaign, expects his first installment for the general election of about $286,000 within 10 days. He was impressed with Cianchette’s performance Tuesday. But he warned the Republican and others not to write him off as a spoiler for Democrats.

“We’re planning to run a campaign to win and we have ideas that are very different from the other candidates and we are very different because we are ‘clean’ and beholden only to the people of Maine,” he said. “My special interests are the people of Maine. My opponents’ special interests are big money and fat corporations.”

Flanagan, a self-made millionaire who has invested most of the $549,000 in his campaign through May 30 from his own resources, issued a press statement immediately after Cianchette’s win Tuesday night. He congratulated him on his victory and on his well-articulated positions on statewide issues expressed at candidate forums and debates.

“But I haven’t heard much detail from Congressman Baldacci and I hope he will begin to participate in debates,” Flanagan said.