Meteorologists are predicting unbroken blue skies and soaring temperatures for the next several weeks – that’s the good news. The bad news lurking behind the sunshine is that Mainers would be better off with a little rain falling on their Independence Day parades.

In short, the drought isn’t through with Maine yet, experts said Friday.

“The public’s perception is, they see it raining, and it’s been wet, so the drought must be over,” said Hendricus Lulofs, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Caribou.

In truth, central Maine has received only 2 inches above normal precipitation since January – not enough to completely overcome the 9-inch deficit of last spring, Lulofs said.

“You still have some good deficits, so we have to keep an eye out,” said Douglas LeComte of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

“Serious drought could come back pretty quickly with a spell of dry weather,” he said.

A monitoring system operated by the National Drought Mitigation Center indicates that Maine is still suffering abnormally dry conditions throughout, with a brown patch of moderate drought centered over Augusta.

While about 40 percent of the country is classified as being in a drought, southern and eastern Maine show the only drought remaining in the Northeast.

“Spring rainfall has erased drought from the rest of New England,” LeComte said.

Maine, too, has been improving. In April, the entire state was in a drought, with many areas classified as severe. Now, the state is of minimal concern nationally, compared with the critical drought conditions and wildfires raging in the West, LeComte said.

“The conditions are better than we expected a year ago,” said Bob Lent, district chief of the U.S. Geological Survey in Augusta.

If this summer brings average rainfall, Maine’s farmers, who depend primarily on rainfall and surface water for their crops, should not be affected. Likewise, field and forest vegetation and wildlife probably will fare well.

But deep beneath the plowed fields and small ponds, groundwater levels remain at the low end of normal ranges, Lent said.

In areas south and east of Bangor, USGS wells have not quite reached normal levels. And stream flows monitored by USGS are as much as 50 percent below median levels in many parts of the state.

The Penobscot, Aroostook, St. John, St. Croix and Piscataquis rivers are all running a little low, according to the most recent USGS measurements.

“We’re catching back up, but we’re still not flush with extra water,” Lent said. “I don’t think anyone is ready to say, ‘The drought is over.'”

Early summer typically brings a reduction in water levels as spring rains cease, and vegetation comes into full bloom and draws more ground water.

This “seasonal drawdown” has not yet begun, however, and Mainers can expect to see the level of rivers, lakes and wells go down in coming weeks. Whether the low-water conditions of July and August will reach harmful lows this year remains to be seen, Lent said.

Rainfalls of a half-inch per week above normal levels would be sufficient to banish the drought, but computer models don’t have enough data to make long-term predictions for the Northeast, Lulofs said.

In the meantime, state officials are preaching caution.

“If you’ve had problems [with your well] in the past, you could very well have problems this summer,” Lent said.

Maine’s Drought Task Force will meet early next month to review data from a variety of sources and make policy recommendations to Gov. Angus King and the Maine Emergency Management Agency.

No one from MEMA was available for comment Friday.

“Basically, the drought emergency isn’t over until the governor calls it off,” said Lent, who serves as co-chairman of the task force. “One person’s drought is another person’s plentiful water.”