The impending shutdown of Amtrak has been averted by an 11th-hour deal between the national passenger rail service and the U.S. Department of Transportation. It is entirely in keeping with the 31-year history of Amtrak that this crisis is resolved in a way that may only add to its problems.

Amtrak needs $200 million to keep running until the end of the fiscal year. The Bush administration, after spending a couple of weeks hinting that the loss of Amtrak would be no loss at all, has come forth with a $100 million loan guarantee and a promise to go to Congress for the rest, either another loan guarantee or an outright appropriation.

The loan guarantees will keep the trains running for now and, with Amtrak’s new president, David Gunn, promising major reforms, may give Amtrak the time the enact new efficiencies to operate better. They are certain, however, to add to Amtrak’s already staggering debt and any combination of loan guarantees and appropriations will enhance its reputation as a bottomless sinkhole for taxpayer dollars.

The coming debate in Congress may be interesting and productive; it more likely will be predictable. Much will be said about the $24 billion in federal subsidies Amtrak has received since it was created in 1971 after Congress relieved railroads of their responsibility to provide passenger service. Little will be said about the $31 billion in subsidies drivers received just last year through federal highway funding, or that air travelers get more every two years than rail passengers got ever. Amtrak will be pummeled for continuing unprofitable runs, yet don’t expect any member of Congress to take blame for preserving unprofitable runs that benefit the home state, even after voting in 1997 that Amtrak would be in the black by now. A new element in the debate will be the administration’s dream of privatization – somehow, by some bit of magic no one can explain, the railroads that wanted out of the passenger business now want back in and have figured a way to make money at it.

Mr. Gunn, on the job just since mid-May, has presented a solid agenda to turn his company around: excessive layers of administration will be peeled away, the practice of mortgaging valuable assets to cover debt will end, the focus will be upon high-speed regional commuter rail that can compete with other modes of transportation, such as the already profitable Boston-Washington run, rather than unprofitable and uncompetitive coast-to-coast runs. It can work, but only if the White House and Congress provide the money, the time and the intellectual honesty to allow it.