Incumbents face wrath of senior voters AARP poll says economy woes, Medicare may galvanize elders

WASHINGTON – Stock market losses are forcing retiree Michael Dalal back to work just to pay the bills.

A former lawyer, businessman and mortgage banker at a brokerage company he owned before retiring two years ago, Dalal, 67, of Monroe, N.J., has lost more than half of his savings. Besides the slumping economy and corporate executives, he blames Congress, which he says hasn’t done enough.

“Both the parties are to blame,” said Dalal, who has started looking for a mortgage banking job that will allow him to work about five hours a day. “I wish they’d all resign and let some new people come in.”

Older Americans, already energized about such issues as prescription drugs and Social Security, are increasingly feeling frustration, anger and fear about the economy. That could spell problems for politicians on the eve of midterm elections because seniors vote in disproportionately large numbers.

An AARP poll suggests there is a strong potential for an anti-incumbency mood, said Chris Hansen, director of advocacy for AARP, the nation’s largest lobbying group for senior citizens. “People aren’t going to accept Republicans blaming Democrats or Democrats blaming Republicans. Incumbents are going to pay a price.”

The Senate left for summer recess last week after Republicans and Democrats were unable to reach agreement on four different Medicare drug proposals. The House has passed a $320 billion proposal to provide seniors on Medicare with a drug benefit.

Because the poll results were not broken down state by state, it was not clear which incumbents stood to suffer.

The prescription drug issue has been in the forefront of the race in Maine between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger, Chellie Pingree, and aides to the two candidates interpreted the results differently.

Steve Abbott, campaign manager for Collins, suggested Collins would be immune from anti-incumbent sentiment on the issue.

“I think seniors recognize the hard work that [Collins] has done to get a prescription drug benefit. They know that she has worked in a bipartisan manner,” Abbott said.

Pingree spokeswoman Deborah Barron disagreed, saying Collins’ vote in support of a Democrat-backed compromise benefit for seniors was an attempt to “inoculate” herself against accusations that she did nothing to make prescription drugs more affordable.

“I think voters are smart and they see through the fact that Susan Collins’ votes are designed more for political coverage than health coverage for Maine’s families,” Barron said.

The poll, conducted July 31-Aug. 4, used a national sample of 1,070 voters age 45 and older. It was conducted for AARP by ICR of Media, Pa., and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Six in 10 of the respondents, or 61 percent, said they were angry the two parties could not reach a compromise. Of that group, 32 percent described themselves as very angry. The other 29 percent described themselves as somewhat angry. Twelve percent of respondents were not too angry and 20 percent were not at all angry. Eight percent either didn’t know or refused to answer.

Twenty-six percent of those polled said they would vote against their senator if he or she allows partisan differences to prevent passage of the legislation.

Democrats must gain seven seats in November to be assured of a majority in the House. Republicans need to gain one seat to return the Senate to a 50-50 tie that gives them control on the strength of Vice President Dick Cheney’s tie-breaking vote.

Voters 65 and older accounted for 19 percent of all votes cast in 1998. They accounted for 14 percent of all votes cast in congressional races in 2000.

Those statistics contributed to a flurry of activity in Congress, including the corporate accountability bill President Bush signed into law last week.

Republican pollsters recently warned the GOP that corporate scandals and economic angst have soured the national mood noticeably, which could translate into “GOP turnout problems” if the trend continues.

“The issue agenda seems tilted slightly toward the Democrats as our party struggles to right the economy and get a handle on the corporate corruption issue. Voters’ attitudes toward corporate offenders are hostile,” Public Opinion Strategies advised.