Hunters are already filling bait buckets with bruin delicacies – rancid meat, stale pastries and even chocolates – in hopes of luring a black bear into shotgun range when bear-hunting season begins Aug. 26.

They’ll need to work hard to attract the bears this year, state wildlife biologist Randy Cross said. Bears’ favorite wild foods, such as apples, berries and nuts, are flourishing this summer, so the skittish animals will probably be less tempted by hunters’ bait.

Still, biologists are predicting a high kill during the 2002 bear season, continuing a growth trend in the annual bear harvest that has some conservationists fretting about Maine’s bear population.

There’s no reason to worry – yet, Cross said Thursday.

“We are concerned, but we’re not alarmed,” he said. “We’re keeping an eye on the harvest … the best word is vigilance.”

The number of black bears in Maine had been growing rapidly during the past decade, in part because of more restrictive bear-hunting rules introduced in 1990.

Numbers increased from about 18,500 statewide in the late 1980s, to the current population of nearly 23,000 bears. Maine’s bears echo an East Coast population boom caused by widespread land and wildlife conservation efforts, Cross said.

More recently, however, population growth has stopped, and the estimated number of bears in Maine has not budged since 1999.

Cross links this shift to increased hunting pressure.

“There are more bears out there, but there are also more bear hunters,” Cross said. “We’re at a balancing point.”

Maine had sold consistently between 10,000 and 11,000 bear-hunting permits each year through the 1970s and ’80s. In 1999, after the Canadian province of Ontario closed its hunting season, the number of bear hunters in Maine, most of whom travel from out of state, jumped to 12,524.

The number of bear permits sold continued to rise in each successive season. Last fall, interest peaked at just over 14,000 hunters, who shot 3,903 bears, rivaling the all-time record kill of two years ago.

Last year, half of Maine’s bear hunters came “from away,” but they were twice as successful as Mainers because the out-of-staters are far more likely to hire guides and use bait.

Bears are unique among Maine’s game animals in that biologists don’t manage the population with hunting in mind, despite the $12 million that bear hunters contribute to state coffers each year.

Instead, biologists use detailed field data to determine a population level at which bear and human interaction will remain rare, Cross said.

“People get used to a certain amount of problems,” he said. “If the bear population increases above a certain number, the nuisance end goes up dramatically.”

State biologists actually have a better handle on bears than on many other species, for which populations must be estimated based on hunters’ success rates. For three decades, biologists have conducted biannual population surveys, recording the minutiae of bear life.

“We are actually going out and counting heads and weighing bears,” Cross said. “We let them tell us how they’re doing.”

As of the most recent survey data, collected during May and June fieldwork, 62 radio-collared bears indicated the population is healthy and holding steady at 23,000 animals.

Maine has sufficient habitat to support as many as 26,000 bears, but the animals aren’t “pioneers” and they tend to cluster near their birthplaces, resulting in high local densities and limited food, Cross said.

Biologists prefer to ensure the survival of a slightly smaller population than to aim for carrying capacity – a scientific term referring to the maximum number of organisms a given habitat can sustain.

“It’s all about the food with bears. They show up for work every day and their job is just to eat,” Cross said.

“If you hold the population at carrying capacity, you’re going to see widespread starvation. … If a bear is starving and desperate, it’s going to associate more with humans.”

Since 1999, biologists have been charged with keeping the bear population from falling below 23,000 animals. If bear hunts continue to grow in popularity, that task could become difficult. Cross doesn’t see the need to change hunting regulations for at least five years, however. For now, he’s watching and waiting.

“The thing with bears is that they don’t respond very quickly,” he said. “A single year is just a hiccup, but they’re not able to rebound from major catastrophes.”

An increase in the cost of bear-hunting permits was approved by the Legislature and will be implemented next fall. For Maine residents, the cost will increase from $5 to $25, and for out-of-state hunters, it will be increased from $15 to $75.

The higher cost is expected to prompt a small, well-timed reduction in the annual bear hunt, which Cross believes will keep the bear population strong.

“Chances are, a minimum effect is all we need right now,” he said.