Governor’s race could undermine bond issue votes Candidates harp on spending cuts

AUGUSTA – With the state’s economy uncertain and candidates for governor talking about the need to cut spending, some political analysts are saying the two bond issues on the November ballot are in trouble.

The two measures would provide $25 million for correctional facilities and $24.1 million for various environmental and agricultural projects.

There are two principal reasons the bond issues may face difficulty, they say.

No advertising campaigns are planned to support the bonds, and the state budget shortfall is an issue in the campaign for governor.

“Nobody is talking about these things at all,” said University of Maine at Farmington political science professor Jim Melcher. “What we are really hearing a lot, in the governor’s race, is this talk of ‘we need to limit what we are spending,’ ‘we need to be fiscally more careful.'”

Melcher said last week that the ads supporting Republican Peter Cianchette have a focus on the state spending issue and could raise doubts in voters’ minds about the affordability of the projects. Or, at the least, whether now is the time to vote for a worthy project with state finances in turmoil.

“My guess would be that it’s going to make people say you know, maybe we would like to do this in a normal year but, boy, I have been hearing a lot about how the state is living beyond its means,” he said.

Bowdoin College government professor Chris Potholm said there could be an indirect impact from ads in the governor’s race on the bond issues, particularly with no campaigns under way to urge passage of the measures.

“Bonds generally rise or fall on the quality of the campaign that is run on their behalf,” he said last week. “It doesn’t take much to nudge [the vote] one way or another. If there is no campaign to push it one way or another, these other factors could come into play.”

William Coogan, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine, said last week that the corrections bond started off in trouble because the idea of building prisons has never been popular.

“Since we have candidates on the statewide ballot talking about lowering taxes and we are in the process of entering increasingly difficult economic times, I would think that the proposal to spend money to build a new prison isn’t going to go to far,” he said. “And I would guess the proposal for the environmental cleanups would be in some significant trouble.”

Amy Fried, a professor of political science at the University of Maine, said last week that supporters of the bond proposals need to inform the voters. She said factors, such as concern over the economy, could raise enough doubt to defeat a bond issue without a positive campaign in support of the proposal.

“If you show up [at the polls] and you have never seen these things before and you are not sure if the money is going to be well spent or that it’s a good idea, you are more likely to vote no,” she said. “If people do not have any information [on the bonds] they are less likely to vote for them.”

While there are no campaigns with paid advertising planned to support either bond issue, there will be some attempts to inform voters through the news media and speeches.

“We will do what we can to inform the voters,” Associate Corrections Commissioner Denise Lord said Friday. “But there are no plans I have heard of by any group to raise money to run advertising. It’s really hard to raise money for a corrections bond.”

Most of the $24.1 million bond package is for various environmental cleanup programs, but no advertising efforts are in the works for that proposal either.

“I have heard of none,” Peter Didisheim, advocacy director for the Natural Resources Council of Maine, said Friday. “We support it, but I have heard of no effort under way that we are involved with.”

Potholm said a few news conferences and service club speeches will not be enough to get a message “through the clutter” of the candidate campaigns this fall.

“There is going to be a lot more on TV than we are seeing now,” he said. “The candidates, and their supporters, will be spending huge amounts to get their message to the voters in all of the races. These [bond] issues will be lost in the clutter.”

As for the candidates for governor, there are mixed views on the two bond issues. Democrat John Baldacci supports both. He said the state has the borrowing capacity and both the corrections and environmental projects are bonding proposals he will “actively” support.

“It’s going to save up to perhaps a third on our operational costs,” he said Saturday, referring to the corrections bond proposal.

Green Independent Jonathan Carter said he has not decided how he will vote on either proposal. He said Saturday that too many bond issues in the past have been “political” with many items tacked on to each bond.

“I want to take some time and seriously analyze each of the tack-ons to see if they are worthwhile,” he said.

Republican Cianchette says he is undecided on the corrections bond, although he admits he is “leaning” toward supporting the measure. He supports the environment-agriculture bond, although he would not support such a “Christmas tree” approach to borrowing if he were elected governor

“As governor, I will not sign bond issues that include unrelated items,” he said. “This Christmas tree approach to bonding, where legislators get to add their pet projects, is irresponsible.”

Independent candidate John Michael could not be reached for comment on the bond issues.