December 23, 2024
POLL

Undecideds could sway 2nd District

BANGOR – Two new polls released Wednesday suggest that more than 20 percent of undecided voters in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District will determine the outcome of a tight race between Democrat Mike Michaud and Republican Kevin Raye.

The polls, released Wednesday by two Portland-based firms, show Michaud with a lead over Raye of anywhere from 5 percent to 9 percent – making the contest for the open seat the closest of any of the major races.

A Strategic Marketing Services survey shows Michaud, the Maine Senate president pro tempore, with support from 37 percent of the likely voters surveyed with another 5.7 percent of voters leaning his way.

Raye, the former chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe, garnered support from 32 percent of those surveyed with another 5 percent leaning toward the Republican nominee.

The poll of 300 likely voters in the 2nd District has a margin of error of 5.6 percent.

Twenty percent of voters were undecided in the race – the highest number of undecided voters in any of the major races, according to the SMS poll.

Another poll, released by Portland-based Critical Insights, shows Michaud leading Raye 43 percent to 34 percent with 21 percent undecided. That survey of 250 likely voters has a margin of error of 6.3 percent.

Despite the relatively high number of undecided voters in both surveys, the campaigns were generally pleased with the survey results, although the Raye campaign disputed the Critical Insights poll for its relatively small survey sample.

“Clearly again here’s another poll where Mike is in the lead,” Michaud press secretary Monica Castellanos said Wednesday. “His 28 years as a millworker combined with his 22 years of legislative service is resonating with voters.”

Raye aides saw the SMS survey as another indication that the race was tightening, and the lesser known Republican was well within striking distance of Michaud.

“We’re closer than we expected at this time considering [Michaud’s] name recognition,” Raye campaign manager Kathie Summers said. “This continues to show that Kevin has the momentum and his message is resonating.”

The SMS poll, conducted Sept. 20-23, roughly coincides with an earlier poll administered for a media consortium including the Bangor Daily News.

In the earlier poll of 311 likely voters, conducted by Portsmouth, N.H.-based RKM Research and Communications for the NEWS, WLBZ 2 Bangor, WCSH 6 Portland, and Maine Public Broadcasting, Michaud held a 31 percent to 27 percent edge over Raye. The difference was well within the poll’s 5.7 percent margin of error.


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