Michaud, Raye near dead heat Independents favoring 2nd District Republican

BANGOR – With one week to go in one of the closest races in the nation, Republican Kevin Raye has pulled to within less than a percentage point of Democrat Mike Michaud in their race for the open 2nd Congressional District seat, according to a poll released Monday.

In the Oct. 23-26 survey, administered for a media consortium including the Bangor Daily News, 36.5 percent said they supported Michaud, with 35.8 percent favoring Raye.

Twenty four percent were undecided, down from 37 percent in September.

Unlike last month, this time it was Raye who fared better among independent voters, with 34 percent favoring the Republican compared to 28 percent for Michaud, with 31 percent undecided.

In a September poll by the same company, Michaud led among independents 28 percent to 21 percent, with 47 percent undecided.

“That’s a big shift,” said University of Maine political science professor Amy Fried of the independent vote, considered critical in the district where about one-third of voters do not belong to a party.

Raye campaign staff reached Monday said the new numbers boded well for their candidate, who had trailed Michaud by 4 points last month.

“His message is resonating,” said Raye campaign manager Kathie Summers, citing the swing among independent voters as an indication that the remaining undecided voters were more likely to vote for Raye. “Mike started strong, but we continue to close.”

The race between Michaud, the state senate president pro tempore, and Raye, a former chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe, has drawn national attention as the parties battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The seat is being vacated by U.S. Rep. John Baldacci, a Bangor Democrat who is running for governor.

Michaud aides Monday said that while the poll shows the race tighter than a month ago, their candidate still enjoys more support in the district, the largest, geographically, east of the Mississippi river.

“We’ve all known this is going to be a close race,” said Michaud press secretary Monica Castellanos. “Not one poll has shown us behind … but again, the only poll that matters is on Election Day, and we’re confident.”

The poll was conducted by Portsmouth, N.H.-based RKM Research and Communications for the NEWS, WLBZ 2 Bangor, WCSH 6 Portland, and Maine Public Broadcasting. The survey of 302 likely voters has a 5.6 percent margin of error.

The poll also showed a “reverse gender gap,” with Michaud, the Democrat, leading among likely male voters and Raye, the Republican, maintaining an edge among women, who as a group typically favor Democrats.

In the October survey, 39.6 percent of the men surveyed favored Michaud compared to 36 percent for Raye. Among women, however, Raye led 36 percent to 33.5 percent.

Fried suggested the unusual dynamic could result from a combination of Michaud’s image as a “man of the people” – more likely to appeal to men – and Raye’s steadier support for abortion rights – more appealing to women.

In the poll, both candidates saw significant jumps in their unfavorable numbers, brought on, pundits said, by the deluge of negative advertising that has flooded the airwaves in the past month.

In the October poll, 30 percent of those surveyed had a favorable impression of Michaud – unchanged from September. However, those who had an unfavorable impression of the East Millinocket Democrat jumped from 9 percent to 26.5 percent in that time.

In the period, Raye’s favorable numbers increased from 26 percent to 35.5, while his unfavorable numbers jumped from 10 percent to 24 percent.

Fried warned that continued negative advertising by the parties or the candidates was unlikely to sway the remaining undecided voters.

“People who haven’t made up their minds yet are looking for someone to vote for, not against,” she said.