Collins, Allen enjoying wide leads, survey shows

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There will be little election night drama in the U.S. Senate and 1st Congressional District races, if a new poll is a predictor.

The poll shows incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins leading challenger Chellie Pingree, the Democrat, by a wide margin. It also shows likely voters heavily favoring incumbent Rep. Tom Allen, the Democrat, over challenger Republican Steven Joyce.

On issues that Mainers are likely to debate in coffee shops – a war with Iraq and a proposed casino – the views of voters are less clear-cut. Opposition to a casino has grown, but on war with Iraq, positions depend on the terms under which military action would be taken.

The poll, commissioned by a media consortium that includes the Bangor Daily News, surveyed 504 likely voters around the state between Oct. 23 and 26 and asked how they would vote on the candidates if the election were held that day.

In the Collins-Pingree race, which takes on national significance because of the slim control Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate, 59.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for Collins; 30.8 percent said they would vote for Pingree; and 10 percent were undecided or would vote for neither.

A poll conducted last month by the same firm, RKM Research and Communications of Portsmouth, N.H., showed Collins with 60 percent support among likely voters, and Pingree with 28 percent support, with the remaining 12 percent undecided or favoring “other.”

Both surveys were conducted for the NEWS, Bangor and Portland TV stations WLBZ and WCSH, and Maine Public Broadcasting. The results of the latest poll released Tuesday have a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Megan Sowards, press secretary for Collins, said Tuesday the campaign was not surprised by the survey results.

“The poll numbers are consistent with the enthusiastic response that Senator Collins has received from Mainers all across the state,” she said. Collins is “extremely grateful for such broad support,” Sowards said.

Though the campaign was taking nothing for granted, Sowards said, staffers believe they understand the support for Collins.

“I think they really appreciate the senator’s hard work,” Sowards said, as well as Collins’ reputation for bipartisanship. Voters have said they are glad Collins has run a positive, issue-oriented campaign, she said.

Deborah Barron, communications director for the Pingree campaign, was unimpressed with Collins’ lead in the poll.

“The polls have been all over the map,” she said.

Pingree and her supporters, meeting with voters in a door-to-door campaign, are seeing a different response for the candidate, Barron said. The campaign is the most aggressive grass-roots effort ever undertaken in Maine for a statewide race, she said.

“The issues that Chellie has a successful track record on are the issues that working Maine families care about,” Barron said.

But the Pingree camp could not have been cheered by some of the details of the poll: 66.9 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Collins, including 55.8 percent of Democratic respondents, and only 17 percent of all those polled had an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent; 23.8 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Pingree, compared with a 43.5 percent favorable rating; and 62.4 percent of respondents who said they were independent voters favored Collins over Pingree.

In the 1st District race, the poll shows three-term incumbent Allen still holding a comfortable lead over Joyce, a former state legislator. The poll showed 58.6 percent of likely voters would choose Allen, with 19.4 percent favoring Joyce; 18.7 percent indicated they were undecided; and 3.3 percent would vote for neither.

A poll in September showed support for Allen at 50 percent, while Joyce drew 9.4 percent support.

A further breakdown of the latest poll does not bode well for Joyce: 11.2 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of the candidate, 17.4 percent had an unfavorable opinion, and 36.3 percent had never heard of him.

On war with Iraq, 25.8 percent of respondents supported using military force to remove Saddam Hussein from power with or without support from the United Nations; another 44.6 percent supported military action against Saddam only with U.N. cooperation; 19.8 percent said military action should not be used to remove Saddam at this time; and 9.8 percent were unsure.

Support for removing Saddam with or without the U.N. was at 20.1 percent in the 1st District, but grew to 31.5 percent in the 2nd District. The issue also broke along party lines, with 36.1 percent of Republicans supporting unilateral action, and just 15.4 percent of Democrats agreeing with unilateral action.

Opposition to an Indian-run casino – which has been proposed for southern Maine – has strengthened since a September poll. Last month, 45 percent favored the proposal, while 44 percent opposed it. The poll completed last week found that 50 percent of respondents now oppose the idea with only 36.5 percent supporting it and 13.5 percent unsure.

Dennis Bailey, spokesman for Casinos No!, a group opposing the tribes’ proposal, believes the poll shows that Mainers have reached a conclusion on the issue.

“It sounds like people have made up their minds,” he said.

When as many as 50 percent oppose a proposal such as the casino, Bailey said, 38 percent to 40 percent of the respondents probably strongly oppose it. Bailey, formerly Gov. Angus King’s spokesman, said his experience with such issues shows that people supporting a controversial proposal are easier to convert to opposition than the other way around.

Tom Tureen, the Portland lawyer who represents the Penobscot and Passamaquoddy tribes proposing the casino, said public sentiment has not yet been courted by the Indians.

“There is no campaign at this point,” he said. “What the public is saying is that they need more information.”

Supporters of the casino are gathering signatures to force a statewide vote on the issue in November 2003. The tribes plan “a lot of education” on the issue, Tureen said.