ABOUT GOV. DEAN

Maine’s neighboring darkest of dark horse candidates for president in 2004, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, is running hard, but he is way out in left field. So is the rest of New England, compared with the Republican lineup put in place by the midterm elections.

Gov. Dean is an unabashed, unapologetic liberal, against war with Iraq, against the huge tax cut and for a dramatic universal health care plan. His only concession to conservatism is his opposition to further gun control. He favors state-by-state decision on the issue, since gun control in Vermont means taking away hunters’ guns, while in New York it may mean blocking street crime.

Yes, Gov. Dean and the rest of New England are outside the current mainstream. Especially Vermont, whose two senators are both on the Bush scold list. James M. Jeffords switched parties and gave Senate control to the Democrats, and Patrick J. Leahy, as chairman of the Judiciary Committee, blocked confirmation of some of the more extreme judgeship nominations. Massachusetts remains solidly Democratic, and Maine has two Democratic congressmen and a pair of moderate Republican senators who are by no means in lockstep with conservative party leadership.

Yet “mainstream” is a misleading concept. The presidential election in 2000 was extremely close, and a slight tip of the vote in many states could have put the Democrats in control of both houses. The electorate remains almost evenly divided. But most other 2004 possibilities have edged toward the perceived mainstream and hesitated to question the administration on the tax cut, health care and preparations for war with Iraq.

Most handicapping puts Gov. Dean near the bottom of the eight to 10 prospective Democratic nominees, just a bit above Al Sharpton of New York. Mr. Dean’s long-shot gamble amounts to a bet that the balance will tip between now and nomination time and a new liberal “silent majority” will emerge. The national economy is in the pits, with deep recession looming and the stock market dithering. The health care crisis is worsening, with costs rocketing upward for both business and consumers. And war with Iraq has an uncertain future, with international support in question and costs and casualties – as well as domestic support – unpredictable. OK, it’s still a long shot.

He has been going all over the country with his message. His best hope is to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, then make a good showing in Maine and other states, especially out west.