AUGUSTA – Development of a $650 million casino in Maine is almost certain to be followed by competing gambling projects in neighboring states, a researcher told Maine officials studying the impacts of a casino Monday.

“I feel certain” a Maine casino would encourage casinos in Massachusetts or New Hampshire, where new resorts could siphon off traffic that would have been destined for Maine, professor Earl Grinols of the University of Illinois-Champaign-Urbana said.

“Maine can win for a year or two,” Grinols said, “but after that, you are losing.”

The economics professor said the experiences of Midwestern states that have allowed casinos in domino fashion validate his prediction that a Maine casino would be followed by competition in neighboring states.

“I’m as certain as you can be about an uncertain event,” he said.

The task force held its final meeting before it compiles a report outlining the likely impacts of the Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Indians’ proposal for a $650 million casino in southern Maine. Casino supporters want a statewide referendum.

Consultants hired by casino backers have told the task force that the complex would create 4,740 jobs and more than twice as many spinoff jobs, while generating $124 million in wages at its start. In a previous presentation, James Klas of KlasRobinson QED of Minneapolis said the casino would have a positive economic impact.

On Monday, Grinols, who professed a neutrality on gaming, elaborated on the economic and social costs of casinos. Much of his research has focused on other states and regions where casinos have been built.

Grinols presented figures showing that the combined benefits of casinos – $35 per adult living in the area surrounding the facility- would be far outweighed by social costs stemming to a large degree from crime adding up to $190 per adult.

Grinols’ studies also show that between 37 and 50 percent of casino revenues come from pathological or problem gamblers.

“Undoubtedly, you have some problem gamblers in the state now,” Grinols said, adding that allowing a casino would add to that number. He also promised a proliferation of pawnshops in the vicinity of a new casino.

Grinols displayed newspaper clippings detailing case after case of murder, embezzlement, suicide, fraud, child abuse and other crimes stemming from debts amassed by problem gamblers in other states.

In a case in Wisconsin, a 64-year-old grandmother embezzled nearly $300,000 to satisfy her gambling debt, and in the same state a teenager piled up $170,000 in gambling debts on his father’s credit cards.

In Illinois, a woman who gambled away her family’s savings and home before her husband knew about it committed suicide, and in Indiana, a clergyman pilfered his church treasury to pay gambling debts.

In perhaps the most graphic anecdote, Grinols said a pawnbroker in Las Vegas produced a jar full of gold tooth fillings turned in by bettors who needed money to pay their debts. The pawnbroker said that one-third of the fillings were from people who used pliers to pull the fillings out right at the counter, according to Grinols.

Sen. Kevin Shorey, a Calais Republican who co-chairs the task force, said the final report would not take a position on whether a casino should be built.

“Our job is to present all sides on this issue,” said Shorey, adding, “it will be up to the Legislature and the people of the state of Maine to decide.”

He also suggested that the newly elected Legislature might want to continue or extend the study, saying that not enough time or money was allotted for the current one.